Ground: Good to Firm | For 3yo+ | York (Knavesmire) | Draw Bias: Low–Middle favoured historically in stayers’ races | Pace Expected: Even to Strong

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Pace & Draw Angles

This year’s renewal is expected to feature an even to strong gallop. Likely pace-setters include Al Qareem, with Trawlerman capable of pressing or leading if required. Sweet William and Dubai Future are mid-div types but can be ridden more forward if tempo lacks. Shackleton may be dropped in. Draws look neutral to slightly favourable low-to-middle, fitting for pace-agile types like Al Qareem and Trawlerman.

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Contenders Breakdown

Strongest Contenders

Trawlerman (Proven)
A high-class stayer who produced a career-best RPR 129 when making all in the Ascot Gold Cup. Versatile in pace-making, relentless galloper, and always finishes off strongly. Five-time winner at Group level, and the Gosdens target this race (5 wins in 8 years). York suits his galloping rhythm. Track, trip, and going ideal.

Al Qareem (Progressive)
Front-running type who thrives at York (3-5 on the Knavesmire), including winning this last year. Displayed another level when storming home in a G3 here in July, recording a career-best 126 RPR. Versatile ground-wise, hard to pass when rolling. Tactically dangerous if allowed a soft lead.

Al Nayyir (Progressive)
Long-striding traveller who was a narrow second to Vauban in this last year. Sectionals point to a turn of foot if pace is strong, and he was an eye-catcher behind Coltrane when things didn’t go his way. Cheekpieces have sharpened him up. York suits; one-paced when dawdled but very dangerous off an even or strong gallop.

Main Dangers

Sweet William (Proven)
Consistent but dependent on a strong gallop. Best on slower surfaces and may be ground-compromised here. Stayed on from rear in multiple Cup races without threatening the main protagonists. Tricky to pass late but doesn’t always find a change of gear when needed.

Dubai Future (Regressive/Proven)
Has won top-level staying races in the Middle East, but UK form increasingly patchy. Ran creditably in the Gold Cup but flat in the Goodwood Cup. Doesn’t find much off the bridle and York hasn’t historically suited him. Possibly vulnerable to younger legs.

Interesting Outsider

Shackleton (Promising)
3yo who shaped with plenty of promise in the Queen’s Vase and was second to Al Riffa over 1m6f latest. Lightly raced, unexposed, weight advantage (11lb WFA). Sectionals suggest he’s still learning and likely to be stronger with age. Could sneak into the frame if the pace collapses.

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Runner Ratings / Suitability

• Trawlerman: 9/10 – Proven class; track, pace, trip perfect.
• Al Qareem: 8.5/10 – Loves York, thrives on the lead; ground fine.
• Al Nayyir: 8/10 – Better with pace to run at; sharpener last time; looks primed.
• Sweet William: 7.5/10 – Always runs well; ideally wants a truer test on slower ground.
• Dubai Future: 6.5/10 – Classy but possibly past peak; tactical setup not ideal.
• Shackleton: 6.5/10 – Weight helps, but lacks tactical speed; watching brief.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form stayers returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (6 runners – no EW)

Not applicable: fewer than 8 runners.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Trawlerman – 9/4
• Al Qareem – 7/2
• Al Nayyir – 4/1
• Sweet William – 13/2
• Dubai Future – 12/1
• Shackleton – 16/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start – Shackleton fits this profile.

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Summary & Smart Play

This Group 2 staying event centres around Trawlerman, who boasts the strongest staying credentials, a peak RPR of 129, and the perfect tactical profile for York. If he gets into a rhythm, he’ll take catching. Al Qareem will make it a real test, and the two could set this up for a strong closer, but likely only if the tempo overcooks – Al Nayyir is best placed to benefit if that happens.

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Smart Play

• Win Selection: Trawlerman – Top-class stayer, strong Ascot form, track and trip ideal.
• Saver: Al Qareem (Win only) – Front-runner with best York record; key tactical threat.