Conditions: Open to 2yo+; significant weight concessions to juveniles
Pace Angles: Likely strong gallop – multiple front-runners engaged including Lady Iman, Spartan Arrow, She’s Quality, Asfoora
Draw Angles: Historically, York’s 5f course offers slight benefit to low-mid draws in big fields on fast ground; centre track runners often merge, so no hard bias unless rain alters ground

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Top Contenders

• Asfoora – Proven
  High-class Australian mare (RPR 124) and King’s Stand winner; handles this fast 5f well. Solid run in defeat latest when bumped; 6lb better off with Big Evs. Strong traveller with tactical speed. Return to sounder surface ideal.
• Arizona Blaze – Progressive
  Smart 3yo sprinter peaking at the right time. Crushed Mgheera latest in Ireland (RPR 118). Handles big fields, loves fast pace. Won’t mind strong gallop; Breeders’ Cup target hints at ambition. Draw 9 is fine.
• She’s Quality – Progressive
  4 x Group-race seconds this year (RPRs 111–118); consistently unlucky not to win. Attacking style suits York; handles fast ground and stays 5f strongly. Draw 11 workable; may be a Group 1 filly in waiting.

Main Dangers

• Frost At Dawn – Promising
  Peak RPR 120; excellent King Charles III runner-up and went close again at Goodwood in Group 2. Prefers fast ground, versatile tactically, and improving in visor. Likely to track pace and pounce late.
• Jm Jungle – Proven
  Epsom Dash and recent Group 2 winner; loves York. Very reliable at this level now and form with American Affair has been franked. Handles any ground; draw 13 no issue given his style.
• Rumstar – Resurgent
  Back to his best in Palace House and Coral Charge wins. Fast ground ideal; needs everything to fall right, but proven in top sprints. Draw 14 workable; hold-up tactics may face traffic.

Interesting Outsiders

• Night Raider – Promising
  Relatively unexposed over 5f. C&D form fair, quick-ground suits. Outsprinted at Royal Ascot but better run last time. Could out-run odds.
• Lady Iman – Promising (2yo)
  Classy juvenile filly (RPR 131); all speed and bred for sprinting. Fast-ground 5f ideal. Getting massive weight pull as 2yo filly (8st 2lb). Big field and early burn-up may allow her to stalk and pounce.
• Sayidah Dariyan – Progressive
  Fast finisher with a turn of foot. Beat solid yardstick last time and closing late at Ascot. 3yo filly with upside; will need luck from stall 2 but Ryan Moore rides.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Asfoora: 9/10 – Proven at track and class, fast ground a plus
• Arizona Blaze: 9/10 – Thriving 3yo, sharp profile, can sit handy
• She’s Quality: 9/10 – Consistent and progressive; peak run imminent
• Frost At Dawn: 8/10 – Excellent recent efforts; draw fine, visor key
• Jm Jungle: 8/10 – Will love pace and track; thriving, drawn high
• Rumstar: 8/10 – Flying finish latest; hold-up risk in big field
• Lady Iman: 7/10 – Untapped potential; 2yo fillies can surprise
• Night Raider: 7/10 – Upside over 5f; fast track will suit
• Sayidah Dariyan: 7/10 – Improving fast; drawn low, needs luck
• Kerdos: 6/10 – Better on softer, vulnerable on quick going
• Spartan Arrow: 6/10 – Exposed; might get outpaced early
• Washington Heights: 6/10 – Honest sprinter, better at 6f
• Manaccan: 5/10 – Smart old form; not at best lately
• Celandine: 5/10 – Might lack early pace; wants 6f
• Ain’t Nobody: 4/10 – Beaten out of sight last 2 starts
• Spicy Marg: 4/10 – Useful filly, but facing a wall of speed
• Mgheera: 4/10 – Caught behind top 3; place best hope

Market Advice
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

With 17 runners, we have each-way scope:

• Lady Iman (7/1+ range): Major weight pull, speedball, no ceiling yet
• Rumstar: Has the form in the book, if pace collapses late

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Asfoora 4/1
• Arizona Blaze 5/1
• She’s Quality 11/2
• Frost At Dawn 7/1
• Rumstar 10/1
• Jm Jungle 10/1
• Lady Iman 12/1
• Sayidah Dariyan 14/1
• Night Raider 16/1
• Kerdos 20/1
• Spartan Arrow 25/1
• Washington Heights 25/1
• Manaccan 33/1
• Celandine 33/1
• Spicy Marg 33/1
• Ain’t Nobody 40/1
• Mgheera 40/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This shapes as a truly run Nunthorpe with no hiding place. The pace will be electric with Lady Iman, Asfoora, Spartan Arrow, and She’s Quality all likely to force it. Proven Group 1 performers Asfoora and Arizona Blaze have profiles that stand out on class, while She’s Quality keeps knocking and deserves to land one.

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Smart Play

• Win Selection: Asfoora – Class act, best form in the race, well-weighted now
• Each-Way Saver: Lady Iman – Receives 25lb from older males, bullet-fast, progressive