Pace Angle: Even pace expected; several mid-division/held-up types, no obvious front-runner.
Draw Angle: Historically, York over 7f can favour low-to-mid draws if pace sits that side. With no natural front-runner, pace distribution may dictate draw bias. Low draws slightly favoured based on past data.

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Strongest Contenders

Naval Light – Proven (96 RPR, 360,000gns breeze-up)
Built a solid profile across three starts in warm maidens and the Norfolk (G2). Ran with credit at Glorious Goodwood and Beverley, shaping like 7f will suit. Top on adjusted figures, well drawn in stall 2. Handles the ground. Live chance.

New Monarch – Progressive (88 RPR, Acclamation colt)
Chased home good horses in both starts; form has substance. Step up to 7f a plus and York’s long straight should suit. Oisin Murphy booked again. Drawn 8, a little wide, but race shape should suit.

Beny Nahar – Promising (90 RPR)
Twice second, both efforts showing ability and determination. Debut run (Newcastle) is working out well. Holds clear sectional merit from latest at Haydock. Buick a notable booking. Drawn 10, wants to settle better, but clear place player.

Frescobaldi – Progressive (87 RPR, Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
Just edged out last time, having moved best through the race. Yard targets this race regularly. Proven over 7f, will be suited by the track. Drawn well in 7. Big shout if progressing again.

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Main Dangers

King Of Thunder – Promising (76 RPR)
Shaped with promise at Ascot in a deep race. Bred to improve for 7f. Palmer’s juveniles often come on a ton second start. Drawn wide in 15 is a negative unless pace collapses.

Red Spells Danger – Proven (78 RPR)
Excellent York debut in a 16-runner Class 3 where he stayed on strongly. Should relish the step up to 7f. From a yard that knows how to ready one. Stall 1 ideal.

Isle Of Fernandez – Progressive (87 RPR)
Goodwood form is solid in context. Drawn 13 not ideal but ran well on debut in a big-field and shapes like a galloping track suits. One for the frame if handling firmer ground.

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Interesting Outsiders

Bond – Unexposed (84 RPR)
Well-backed on debut for Twomey, who doesn’t waste UK raids. Strong pedigree and high price tag. Missed the break on debut. Could improve sharply but tough to overcome inexperience in this race.

Spyce – Unraced (Too Darn Hot colt, 280,000gns)
Stout pedigree and stable rarely runs them for nothing. Will improve with racing but commands respect as a breeze-up type with smart relations. Market will be key.

Inishbeg – Unraced (500,000gns Ghaiyyath colt)
Top connections, high price, excellent pedigree. Drawn 11, yard in decent nick. Likely to be green but capable of a bold debut. Trainer has used this race to introduce smart types.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Naval Light: 9/10 – Ideal setup; track and trip suit.
• New Monarch: 8/10 – Likely to thrive at 7f; slight draw concern.
• Frescobaldi: 8/10 – York looks a perfect fit; clear progression angle.
• Beny Nahar: 8/10 – Consistent, needs to settle; solid type.
• King Of Thunder: 7/10 – Interesting improver; wide draw concern.
• Red Spells Danger: 7/10 – Form reads well; course experience a big plus.
• Isle Of Fernandez: 7/10 – Decent filly, well drawn; frame chance.
• Bond: 6/10 – Slow start on debut; may lack know-how.
• Spyce: 6/10 – Unraced but smart profile; needs market support.
• Inishbeg: 6/10 – Can go well if sharp; watch betting.
• Sea The Power: 5/10 – Pulled early last time; potential if settling.
• Ephron: 5/10 – Nothing in profile suggests he’s above average.
• Ice Cube: 4/10 – Average pedigree; trainer form poor.
• Explosive Finnish: 3/10 – Low RPR and looked green.
• Night Wolf: 3/10 – Nice page but no experience.
• Each-way advice: Only if 8+ runners.
• Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
• Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Selected Runners)

• Naval Light – 7/2
• New Monarch – 9/2
• Frescobaldi – 5/1
• Beny Nahar – 6/1
• Red Spells Danger – 10/1
• King Of Thunder – 10/1
• Isle Of Fernandez – 12/1
• Bond – 14/1
• Spyce – 14/1
• Inishbeg – 16/1
• Rest – 25/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This is a typically deep renewal of the Convivial, with strong representation from leading stables and a good mix of proven and progressive types. Naval Light sets the standard on form and looks tailor-made for this trip. New Monarch brings substance and scope for more. Frescobaldi is unexposed and hails from a yard with a good record in this. The pace scenario should allow a fair contest.

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Smart Play:

Win Selection: Naval Light – sets a strong form benchmark and proven at the trip.
Each-Way Saver (if 8+ runners): Red Spells Danger – excellent debut at track and value angle.