Pace Angles: Likely strong pace. Several confirmed or potential front-runners including Big Leader, Supido, Teroomm, and Tiger Mask suggest a contested early gallop. This may set things up for strong travellers and hold-up types if they handle York’s long straight and quick ground.

Draw Angles: With the race over York’s extended mile and a big field, middle-to-high draws are historically neutral-to-slightly positive. Horses drawn 10+ include Fearnot (15), Dividend (16), Tiger Mask (13), and Miami Matrix (14), who will need positioning help early. Rail bias unlikely to dictate outcome given forecast ground.

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Strongest Contenders:

Fearnot (9-9, Drawn 15) – Proven & Progressive
Unbeaten in handicaps this season (3-3), including emphatic wins at Ascot, the Britannia third, and a last-time-out surge through traffic. Possesses a rare turn of foot, acts well on fast ground, and likely Group-bound. High draw not ideal but overcame worse last time. Trainer and jockey combo strong; top contender.

Fifth Column (9-2, Drawn 5) – Proven & Progressive
Gelded this season and thriving. Won impressively at Newmarket and has top-3 finishes in strong C2 events including the Britannia. Shapes like a Cambridgeshire type, and Buick is an upgrade. Cheekpieces effective and drawn well in stall 5.

Montpellier (9-4, Drawn 9) – Promising
Lightly raced, still learning but displays high ability. Won novice, then ran second and fourth in strong 6f–7f handicaps. Bred to improve further (dam: Abbaye winner), York’s galloping mile will suit. Ryan Moore booked.

Dividend (9-4, Drawn 16) – Proven
Game effort from the rear in the Britannia (4th) and handles fast ground. Better on AW (3-3) but showed turf aptitude now. May be inconvenienced from stall 16 unless dropped in again.

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Main Dangers:

Supido (9-4, Drawn 10) – Proven
Ex-French, now acclimatised. Close up behind Fearnot and Arabian Story at Ascot, despite traffic. Slight stamina question but shapes like a strong 7f/miler. Stable in red-hot form.

Teroomm (8-13, Drawn 6) – Progressive
Well-backed Haydock winner, then credible efforts in the Britannia and subsequently. Slightly flattered by pace in those wins but remains on upward curve. Oisin Murphy rides.

Yah Mo Be There (9-3, Drawn 4) – Promising
Dropped from Group level into handicaps and shaped well at Goodwood. Trainer thinks he’ll improve with trip and age. Strong finisher, but hold-up tactics carry risk here.

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Interesting Outsiders:

Knights Gold (8-2, Drawn 7) – Progressive
Had excuses last time but progressive before that, winning 4 of previous 6. Improving fast and gets Hollie Doyle. Faces his toughest task but profile is upward.

Impartiality (8-6, Drawn 12) – Progressive
Career-best last time when second in a strong handicap. Lightly raced and still improving. Draw is workable and cheekpieces help focus. Could surprise.

Big Leader (8-13, Drawn 8) – Unexposed
3-3 in lesser events. This is a huge class jump, but he has guts and may improve. Could set pace but needs to prove he belongs at this level.

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Runner Scores and Suitability:

• Fearnot: 10/10 – Thrives over the trip, acts on ground, looks group class.
• Fifth Column: 9/10 – Well drawn, progressive, excellent run style match.
• Montpellier: 9/10 – Lightly raced improver, shapes ideally for this.
• Dividend: 8/10 – Effective but less tactical speed; high draw a challenge.
• Supido: 8/10 – Reliable, bit of upside, well in vs. Fearnot.
• Teroomm: 7.5/10 – Form reads well, bit reliant on pace collapsing.
• Yah Mo Be There: 7/10 – Hold-up risk. Needs gaps to appear.
• Knights Gold: 7/10 – Trainer angle, rising fast, but meets best yet.
• Impartiality: 6.5/10 – Form coming right; may lack class.
• Big Leader: 6/10 – Raw potential, class query, possible pace collapse target.
• Tiger Mask: 5.5/10 – Unreliable and form not stacking up.
• Miami Matrix: 5/10 – Ground/trip not optimum; vulnerable to improvers.
• King Casper: 4.5/10 – Inconsistent. Flopped last two on sound ground.
• We Dare To Dream: 4.5/10 – Soft-ground type; likely outpaced.
• Sea Force: 4/10 – Improving but this is steep class jump.
• Sir Paul Ramsey: 3.5/10 – Fully exposed and better on easier ground.
• Point Of Contact: 3.5/10 – Unconvincing in this grade.

Advice:

• “Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
• “Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.”

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Each-Way Angles (17 runners):

• Montpellier – Well-drawn improver who’s shaping nicely.
• Knights Gold – Continues to defy the handicapper, may sneak into places.
• Supido – Reliable closer who fits race shape well.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Top 8 only):

• Fearnot – 4/1
• Fifth Column – 5/1
• Montpellier – 13/2
• Supido – 7/1
• Dividend – 8/1
• Teroomm – 9/1
• Yah Mo Be There – 12/1
• Knights Gold – 14/1
  (Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.)

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Summary + Smart Play:

This is a deep renewal, full of upwardly mobile 3yos. Fearnot is a standout – he’s progressive, strong in the finish, and already shaping like a future Group horse. A contested pace and drying ground play to his strengths. Fifth Column and Montpellier rate next best, the latter being unexposed with excellent credentials.

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Smart Play:

• Win: Fearnot – Class act with tactical pace and rapid improvement.
• Each-Way: Montpellier – Just behind in the pecking order and can pounce late.