Pace Angles:
This small field contains no confirmed front-runner, though Sunriseontheboyne has led in the past and may adopt similar tactics from stall 6. Overall, pace looks even to tactical, favouring those with a turn of foot.

Draw Angles:
On this sharp track with a relatively short run-in, low-to-mid draws are preferable. Stalls 1–4 look optimal; wider out may require early exertion to get position or risk being trapped wide.

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Strongest Contenders, Main Dangers & Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contender – Collecting Coin (Proven & Progressive)
He sets the standard with a clean upward form line: 3rd, 2nd, and then an authoritative maiden win at Galway (RPR 93). The gelding operation clearly had a positive impact, and the return to a mile looks suitable. Timeform noted he won with “plenty in hand.” Pedigree suggests this trip is well within scope, and he’s tactically versatile. Drawn 3, he should slot in easily under a 5lb claimer.

Main Danger – Mathan (Proven & Solid)
Hardy and consistent, with a peak RPR 93 in a Curragh maiden. His close 3rd in a competitive Galway handicap (behind Scott Key) rates well, especially as he sat wide off the rail. Cheekpieces stay on. However, he’s perhaps more of a galloper than a quickener – may be tactically vulnerable in a steadily run contest.

Danger – Sujet (Promising)
Weld’s Frankel gelding won his handicap debut convincingly off 78 and ran respectably off 87 next time. Excuses in deeper ground that day. Hasn’t yet proven he handles Killarney’s unique undulations but drawn well in 2 and gets Colin Keane. The stable’s high recent rtf% (75%) is a positive.

Interesting Outsider – Refreshment (Progressive)
A real summer improver who’s risen 13lb in the ratings since early June. Blinkers have transformed him, and he coped well with deeper conditions at Galway. He’ll need a decent pace to bring stamina into play, but from stall 5 and with no weight, he’s not out of this.

Potentially Underrated – Dahlia Noir (Unexposed)
RPRs suggest her maiden win wasn’t a fluke. She’s held her form fairly well, and a return to slightly better ground could help. A sharp mile may stretch her just a touch, and the stable form is modest, but stall 1 helps.

Hold-up Risk – Refreshment & Dahlia Noir
Both typically delivered late and will need luck in running, especially if pace proves tactical.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Collecting Coin: 9/10 – Well-suited to trip, ground, and profile is upward. Strong claims.
• Mathan: 8/10 – Trip and class fine. Just lacks a turn of foot in a tactical setup.
• Sujet: 8/10 – Ground, distance and recent form all align. Slight concern over track suitability.
• Refreshment: 7/10 – Improver but style reliant on pace. Needs things to fall right.
• Dahlia Noir: 6/10 – Has ability but questions on progression and tactical speed.
• Sunriseontheboyne: 5/10 – Likely to lead but vulnerable to stronger closers late.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

(6 runners – No each-way advice applicable)

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Private Tissue Estimate (Odds)

• Collecting Coin – 2/1
• Mathan – 11/4
• Sujet – 7/2
• Refreshment – 6/1
• Dahlia Noir – 10/1
• Sunriseontheboyne – 14/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This tactical-rated race hinges on who can settle and quicken best off likely even fractions. Collecting Coin has the form edge and is well drawn, while Mathan and Sujet provide solid resistance. Refreshment appeals if there’s pace, while Dahlia Noir remains a puzzle horse who could surprise if the race collapses late.

Smart Play:
Win Bet: Collecting Coin – progressive profile, ideal draw, and likely still ahead of the assessor.
Saver: Sujet – improving with better ground a key plus; Keane a notable booking.