Pace Angle: Strong pace likely – Beylerbeyi, La Pulga, and Defiance all like to race handily or press leaders.
Draw Angle: Low-to-mid draws (1-5) have performed best historically over this trip at Hamilton; wide draws (8+) slightly disadvantaged on good-to-firm ground when pace is contested.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends/Timeform Comments

Defiance – Progressive. Shaped well when third in a deep Glorious Goodwood handicap off this mark, finishing strongly. Gelded before this campaign, and stepping back up to 1m4f looks ideal. Versatile ground-wise and drawn well in stall 1. Will be suited by strong pace. Likely on a “go day.”

Paddy The Squire – Proven. Back to winning ways last time with ease over this trip. Twice placed in big-field C2 handicaps earlier in season including over this C&D. Unexposed at 12f+ and handles all ground. Drawn 2, tactical speed to sit handy. Can confirm his well-being.

Faylaq – Proven. Ran with credit in all key Northern staying handicaps this season. Third in this last year; has since notched two Hamilton wins. May need strong pace to run at, but this will help. Drawn wide in 8 but tactically flexible. 9yo still retains all ability.

La Pulga – Proven. Third in this race in 2024. Rejuvenated this season with two solid efforts at 12f and just denied at Ascot last time. Might prefer smaller fields, but drawn fine in 5 and retains form. Carrying a 5lb claimer helps. Has tactical speed to go forward.

Beylerbeyi – Promising. Hat-trick seeker and big improver since upped to 12f. Has clocked back-to-back RPRs of 107, and this is his first test in a race of this strength. Trainer in good form. Should sit just off the pace. This is a deeper race, but his upward curve makes him a danger.

Sportingsilvermine – Progressive. Improved throughout this summer. Might have gone close in the Old Newton Cup but for traffic, and again ran well latest. Strong-finisher and well-drawn in 3. On the upgrade; potentially better than his current OR of 84.

Spanish Hustle – Proven C&D winner, but exposed. Multiple Hamilton wins and was beaten less than 6 lengths by a couple of these recently. Ground and trip fine, but may need things to fall right from stall 6. Could hit the frame.

Tafsir – Exposed. Runs regularly here but rarely wins in this class. Well beaten by Sportingsilvermine and Faylaq on recent form. Needs a slower race or major collapse up front to be competitive.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Defiance: 9/10 – Well drawn, top jockey, peak form, suited by conditions.
• Paddy The Squire: 8/10 – Strong profile at this trip, good draw, goes on the ground.
• Faylaq: 8/10 – Course winner, tactically flexible, needs pace. Wide draw a slight issue.
• La Pulga: 7/10 – Consistent and claimer helps; fair draw and trip ideal.
• Beylerbeyi: 7/10 – Improving rapidly but up in grade. Tougher task now.
• Sportingsilvermine: 7/10 – Still progressing; each-way material from ideal draw.
• Spanish Hustle: 5/10 – Exposed but course form solid.
• Tafsir: 3/10 – On old marks, not firing in this grade.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (8 runners)

• Sportingsilvermine – Lightly raced, improving, and value at this level with ideal draw.
• La Pulga – Holds good course form and trainer/jockey combo shrewd.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Defiance – 3/1
• Paddy The Squire – 9/2
• Faylaq – 5/1
• Beylerbeyi – 7/1
• La Pulga – 8/1
• Sportingsilvermine – 9/1
• Spanish Hustle – 16/1
• Tafsir – 33/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This is a truly competitive Heritage Handicap with a solid pace expected and several well-handicapped runners coming into form. Defiance looks primed for a big run – he’s a strong stayer suited by a fast pace and is stepping back up to his best trip after shaping very well at Goodwood. His draw and jockey booking reinforce stable intent.

Paddy The Squire is peaking now and has a strong record here, while Faylaq appeals as a seasoned handicapper still running to form. Sportingsilvermine and La Pulga are the most interesting from an each-way perspective.

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Smart Play

• Win: Defiance – Ready to peak back up in trip after strong Goodwood third.
• Each-Way Saver: Sportingsilvermine – Strong form in top handicaps, ideally drawn.