Pace Angles: Predominantly held-up and midfield runners. Still She Blooms and Star Mind may be prominent. No established front-runner means the race risks being run at a modest tempo.
Draw Angles: Low-to-mid draws have historically fared best over this trip at Killarney. High draws, especially double digits, are at a disadvantage in slowly-run contests.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders
Strongest Contenders:
- Daonethatgotaway (Proven): Consistent on turf and AW, recent efforts solid off today’s mark. Held form well over the summer. Acts on the ground, drawn well, and likely to be positioned handily. Still on the upgrade for this yard and worth respecting with a strong recent RPR of 68.
- Star Mind (Progressive): Followed up two solid efforts with a strong finish to win at Naas. Tactically versatile and handles undulations. Wide draw (10) not ideal but less of a negative in a slow-run race. Up 8lb but strong profile.
- Zaraahmando (Progressive): Two wins from last three, both strong-finishing efforts over similar trips. Lightly raced, thriving, and potentially ahead of his mark. Handles good ground and shapes as one with upside.
Main Dangers:
- Nedita (Promising): Showed promise in winter AW efforts, including a win off 59. Wasn’t disgraced last time behind Star Mind and may be capable of better returned to AW or with a stronger gallop.
- Chavajod (Proven): Running solid races in defeat lately and went close at Galway. Can go well again if getting a decent pace but draw better this time. Vulnerable to younger legs but respected.
- Secret Magician (Proven): Has hinted at a return to form recently. Fourth last time over 7f on soft. Now finds ideal conditions and a competitive mark. Yard has him peaking again.
Interesting Outsiders:
- Speckled Meadow (Proven): Often runs on late, no luck last time. Drawn wide again but can sneak into the frame if things fall right.
- Still She Blooms (Promising): Profile of a front-runner who may get loose. Hard to weigh up fully, but visually impressive win at Killarney two back, though may need to improve again under penalty.
- Touted Plan (Promising): Narrowly beaten in a big field last time and showed she handles ground and trip. Still learning, wide draw the only negative.
Hold-up Risk:
Darkdeserthighway, Speckled Meadow, and Star Mind are most at risk if the gallop is slow.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- Daonethatgotaway: 8/10 – Versatile, well-drawn, proven over trip/ground.
- Star Mind: 8/10 – Thriving, good late kick, wide draw slight worry.
- Zaraahmando: 8/10 – Unexposed 3yo, form working out, upward curve.
- Nedita: 7/10 – Competitive off mark, AW form better, but not discounted.
- Chavajod: 7/10 – Reliable, strong-finishing but minor place preferred.
- Secret Magician: 6/10 – Re-emerging, may go well but lacks upside.
- Still She Blooms: 6/10 – Tactical angle, unproven in this company.
- Speckled Meadow: 6/10 – Consistent, but needs luck from draw.
- Touted Plan: 6/10 – Getting better, big field suits, wide draw a negative.
- Darkdeserthighway: 5/10 – Reliable but vulnerable type.
- Vega’s Muse: 5/10 – Consistent but exposed now.
- Shelbourne: 4/10 – Recent form poor, hard to support.
- Senti Qua: 4/10 – One good run, ground/trip question marks.
- Nakasero: 4/10 – Needs easier, trip stretching.
- Linger For Longer: 3/10 – Needs 7f with cut, drawn wide.
- Alto Sax: 3/10 – Out of sorts.
- No Such Thing: 2/10 – Not competitive off this mark.
- Brandon Creek: 2/10 – Poor turf form, drawn in middle.
Advice:
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles:
Race has 18 runners, so each-way plays are viable.
- Speckled Meadow and Touted Plan both make appeal for place purposes given consistent profiles and good recent runs.
- Zaraahmando offers win/place value with form trajectory intact.
Private Tissue Estimate (Selected Runners):
- Daonethatgotaway – 11/2
- Star Mind – 6/1
- Zaraahmando – 13/2
- Nedita – 8/1
- Chavajod – 10/1
- Secret Magician – 12/1
- Still She Blooms – 14/1
- Touted Plan – 14/1
- Speckled Meadow – 16/1
- Others – 20/1+
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):
This is a wide-open 18-runner handicap, but the field splits into exposed and progressive profiles. The standout angle is the trio of Daonethatgotaway, Star Mind, and Zaraahmando, all of whom have tactical flexibility, current form, and profiles pointing upward. A modest gallop may disadvantage late closers.
Smart Play:
- Win Bet: Daonethatgotaway – well drawn, proven, reliable in context.
- Each-Way Saver: Zaraahmando – improving 3yo, pace versatile, better than bare mark.
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