Pace Angles: Moderate-to-strong pace likely. Likable Chancer, Thehairyfella and Tuff Days can go forward.
Draw Angles: Not relevant over staying trips in Irish chases; positioning on this tight, right-handed track is more important.

---

Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

1. Thehairyfella – Proven
Scored at Downpatrick in July and ran creditably again since. Strong finisher with stamina assured and C&D form. Suited by pace and ground. Slightly vulnerable off 80 if tempo proves demanding, but Jack Kennedy takes over which is significant.

2. Movie King – Progressive
Third at Kilbeggan last time on only his fourth chase start. Held position well behind Doyen Magic and should come forward for that run. Strong stamina influences in pedigree and trainer rarely runs one for nothing.

3. Hit The Frame – Promising
Runner-up over this trip at Roscommon in new headgear (tongue tie + blinkers). Lightly raced and unexposed over fences. Displayed improved jumping and finishing effort; significant upside if headgear clicks again.

4. My Friend The Wind – Exposed but consistent
Creditable 5th behind the right horse at Roscommon (same race as Long Road). Often runs his race but hard to place for win purposes. Stays well, but 10yo with no course form and one-paced profile.

5. Ballagh Star – Slightly Regressive
Has hinted at ability but has failed to build on winning debut over fences. Fair 4th behind Ardfert Mary in June, but hasn’t shown same zip since. Wouldn’t rule out minor place if getting an easy time up front.

6. Long Road – Interesting Outsider
Massive RPR (107) two starts back at Tramore when grabbing second late. Better than bare result latest when always in rear. If that Tramore run is not a fluke, he’s attractively treated and stamina is assured.

7. Container Madness – Improving Handicapper
Hard to weigh up, but shaped like a stayer at Limerick and Punchestown. Back from hurdles to chase with Slevin booked. Possible market mover on switch in discipline.

Hold-up Risk: Dawn Escape, Early Arrival, Long Road – All best with a pace collapse and prone to traffic problems.

---

Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Thehairyfella: 8/10 – Track and trip suit. Recent win and placed efforts.
• Movie King: 8/10 – Profile suggests more to come. Suited by this test.
• Hit The Frame: 7.5/10 – Improving, unexposed. Right race to continue progress.
• My Friend The Wind: 6.5/10 – Reliable, limited upside.
• Ballagh Star: 6/10 – Wants softer ground ideally.
• Long Road: 7.5/10 – One big run on record; risky but dangerous.
• Dawn Escape: 6/10 – Not progressing.
• Container Madness: 6.5/10 – Could go well fresh; hard to assess.
• Early Arrival: 5.5/10 – Pulled up latest, looks regressive.
• Tuff Days: 5/10 – Poor chase form, hard to fancy.
• Captain Kate: 5/10 – Better over hurdles; chase profile weak.
• Tennesse Boy: 3/10 – Uncompetitive to date.
• Father Jed: 2/10 – Veteran, 14 years old, long way past best.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form stayers returning quickly; they can be hot.

---

Each-Way Angles

Race has 13 runners – Each-way options viable.

• Long Road – RPR standout at Tramore, running style could be suited to this setup.
• Hit The Frame – Unexposed, may have more to come in a weak field.

---

Private Tissue Estimate

1. Thehairyfella – 4/1
2. Movie King – 5/1
3. Hit The Frame – 11/2
4. Long Road – 13/2
5. My Friend The Wind – 9/1
6. Container Madness – 12/1
7. Ballagh Star – 14/1
8. Dawn Escape – 16/1
9. Early Arrival – 18/1
10. Captain Kate – 25/1
11. Tuff Days – 25/1
12. Tennesse Boy – 50/1
13. Father Jed – 66/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

---

Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This is a typical late-summer 0–100 handicap chase where many runners are well exposed. The pace should be fair with several mid-division types and three potential leaders. A repeat of his Tramore second makes Long Road interesting at a price, but the more reliable, progressive angle lies with Movie King, who shaped like a strong stayer and has room for improvement. Thehairyfella is solid and remains on the shortlist thanks to stamina and current well-being.

---

Smart Play
Win: Movie King – lightly raced, progressive chaser off a feasible mark.
Each-Way Saver: Long Road – could bounce back and holds the highest single-run RPR in the field.