9.00 Chelmsford – Paddy Power Handicap (Class 5, 3yo, 1m2f, Standard to Slow)

Pace Angles:
Likely even tempo. No confirmed front-runner; a couple of pressers (notably Blast The Dream and Caspian King) may ensure a fair gallop without overcooking it. Expect a relatively even distribution of running styles.

Draw Angles:
Chelmsford over 1m2f is generally fair with a mild bias towards middle to low draws in evenly run races. Draws 2–5 can secure good early positioning.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contenders:

• Blast The Dream (Proven – 8/10): Dual AW winner, highest RPR in the field (85), and form consistently in the 80s. Likely best horse at weights if repeating early 2025 AW efforts. Return to AW a positive; surface, trip and class all ideal. Draw 3 and tactical speed suit this setup. Was exposed last time at Epsom in a small tactical race but was keeping on. Big player.
• Live Each Day (Progressive – 7/10): Strong RPRs of 84 and 82 at this trip earlier in the summer. Didn’t stay fully last time but had excuses. Drop back to 1m2f suits and useful 3lb claimer is back aboard. Lightly raced and retains upside at the trip.

Main Dangers:

• Caspian King (Promising – 7/10): Multiple efforts with RPRs in the low 80s suggest a win is coming. He’s been consistent without quite putting it all together. Chelmsford return is a plus based on AW debut; tactical profile fits this field well.
• Bomba Del Mundo (Unexposed – 6/10): Bolted up on debut over 1m3f, but was soundly beaten upped to Class 2 and on firmer ground. Now back in calmer waters; likely still learning. Up in grade but bred for this trip and pedigree hints at latent ability. Market watch important.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Blue Train (Potential Improver – 6/10): Winner on AW earlier in the summer off a similar mark. Form has been patchy but the visor seems to have helped. Trainer in fair form and this setup could suit. Draw 1 could allow stalking ride.
• Princess Amber (Step Up in Trip Positive – 5/10): Not the most consistent, but her best effort came when stepped up to 1m2f. Sandown effort can be forgiven due to trouble in running. Could be suited by Chelmsford and under the radar.

Hold-Up Risk:

• Live Each Day, Princess Amber and Pebble Island are likely to be held up, which could be risky without a guaranteed strong pace.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Blast The Dream: 8/10 – Proven AW ability, strong ratings, well drawn.
• Live Each Day: 7/10 – Stays 1m2f, progressive, but needs a fair pace.
• Caspian King: 7/10 – Consistent, capable of better; AW form solid.
• Bomba Del Mundo: 6/10 – Unexposed, big ask off debut win.
• Blue Train: 6/10 – Patchy but back on AW and in-form visor.
• Princess Amber: 5/10 – Trip suits, inconsistent but danger at a price.
• Elsass: 4/10 – Needs revival; regressed after promise.
• Pebble Island: 4/10 – Shown some ability; draw not helpful.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

(Race has 8 runners – Each-way terms available)

• Blue Train appeals each-way with AW form and an improving profile in headgear.
• Princess Amber has a sneaky profile if she builds on her 1m2f effort.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Blast The Dream – 5/2
• Caspian King – 9/2
• Live Each Day – 5/1
• Bomba Del Mundo – 6/1
• Blue Train – 8/1
• Princess Amber – 10/1
• Elsass – 14/1
• Pebble Island – 16/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View

This is a winnable Class 5 3yo handicap, with Blast The Dream bringing the best proven form on the AW and well placed to dominate from draw 3. Live Each Day and Caspian King are dangers if pace allows, while Blue Train could run into a place with the right trip.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Blast The Dream – back to AW, rated 85, and tactically advantaged.
• Each-Way Saver: Blue Train – visor, AW return, draw 1, could spring a surprise.