Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:

This is a Listed contest for 3yo+ horses who have not yet won a Group race. The 3-year-olds receive 6lb from their elders, with additional penalties for prior Listed wins. Likely pace appears even to solid, with Queen Of The Bogs, Barbizon, and Howyoulikethat all capable of forcing or pressing the gallop. The round mile at Killarney offers a relatively fair draw bias but low draws can be advantageous in tactical affairs – stalls 1–4 are slightly preferred here.

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Strongest Contenders:

• Expanded (Proven) – A highly promising 3yo from Aidan O’Brien. Second in the Group 1 Dewhurst last year, and though his 2025 campaign has seen defeats in Guineas company, he’s been up against elite rivals. Shaped well at two, and connections drop him to a Listed level here for a confidence-building assignment. Has tactical pace and is expected to track or sit behind leaders. Major player.
• Mississippi River (Progressive) – Stablemate to Expanded and the more seasoned of the two. Progressive through handicaps, peaking at RPR 110. Tactical speed aided by blinkers, consistent, and well-handicapped against his elders. Recent runs suggest Listed class is not beyond him.
• Duckadilly (Promising) – Lightly raced and improving. Returned from 400+ day absence to win two in a row, then ran respectably behind Vera’s Secret in Group 3 company. Capable of settling mid-pack. Timeform suggests the ground may not have suited LTO – today’s surface could see better again.

Main Dangers:

• Evening Blossom (Progressive) – Improving since tongue-tie applied, winning two of last four. Defied higher marks in handicaps and gave a career-best last time. Not much room for improvement at this level, but could pick up pieces if leaders overcook.
• Thalara (Progressive) – Unexposed 5yo with three consecutive Listed placings this season. Wasn’t far behind Barnavara last time, who has run creditably in higher company. Holds up and finishes strongly, but hold-up risk if tempo is falsely run.
• Fiery Lucy (Proven) – Consistent filly at this level. Solid RPRs across Listed/Group company, has tactical pace and staying power. Last effort easily excused due to wide trip and sharp track. Drawn widest again in 11, which could again complicate.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Barbizon (Promising) – Just two starts but won a weak novice nicely. This is a huge jump in class and he’s short on substance, but hard to dismiss totally given how easily he won last time. More of a long-term prospect.
• Queen Of The Bogs (Promising) – Made all to score at the Curragh and could be the unknown quantity here. Lacks depth in form but unexposed and a pace angle. Worth monitoring market-wise.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• Expanded: 9/10 – Track and ground fine; significant class edge.
• Mississippi River: 8/10 – Ground, form and blinkers ideal.
• Duckadilly: 8/10 – Could bounce back; better ground a plus.
• Thalara: 7/10 – Likeable filly but racing style needs luck.
• Evening Blossom: 7/10 – In form, lacks top-end gears.
• Fiery Lucy: 7/10 – Wide draw; reliable but vulnerable.
• Soft Winds: 6/10 – Too many midpack efforts, best form weak.
• Barbizon: 6/10 – Form not strong; unexposed but hard to rate higher.
• Queen Of The Bogs: 6/10 – Easy maiden win; big ask here.
• Howyoulikethat: 5/10 – Reliable veteran, but not at this level.
• Ben Lawers: 4/10 – Still a maiden; more needed.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles:
(11 runners qualify)

• Thalara – Has been consistent in Listed efforts and could sneak into the frame if pace collapses late.
• Fiery Lucy – Underrated; wide draw a concern but may offer value at double figures.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Expanded – 2/1
• Mississippi River – 4/1
• Duckadilly – 6/1
• Evening Blossom – 8/1
• Thalara – 10/1
• Fiery Lucy – 12/1
• Barbizon – 16/1
• Queen Of The Bogs – 20/1
• Soft Winds – 25/1
• Howyoulikethat – 33/1
• Ben Lawers – 40/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):

This is a high-quality renewal with Aidan O’Brien fielding two solid contenders. Expanded drops from Group 1 company and brings by far the best form into this. He’s lightly raced, tactically versatile, and represents the yard’s best chance. Mississippi River is match-fit, reliable and strong in blinkers – he makes the most appeal if the favourite falters. Thalara remains a solid each-way play.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Expanded
• Each-Way Saver: Thalara