1. Race Shape & Draw

• Pace: No obvious confirmed front-runner; looks an even-to-muddling pace unless Gorak or Zoulu Chief are asked to force it. Could favour those handy rather than deep closers.
• Draw: Goodwood 7f can be draw-sensitive depending on pace. Middle-to-low draws (2–6) historically best when pace is not strong. High numbers (9–12) need to slot in early or risk being caught wide.

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2. Strongest Contenders

Mudbir (OR 95, 8-12, Draw 12) – Progressive 3yo

• Rapid improver (form: 1st Sandown, 1st Goodwood).
• Unexposed, half-brother to Mostahdaf.
• Stays 7f well, still learning, could rate higher than 95.
• Negatives: Wide draw could trap him deep if no pace.
• Verdict: Progressive colt, could be the Group horse lurking.

Royal Zabeel (OR 104, 9-12, Draw 9) – Proven Class

• Listed winner AW, revived on fast ground at Newmarket (RPR 110).
• Handles 7f well, 3lb higher than latest win.
• Better on quick ground than soft – today suits.
• Negatives: High draw awkward; needs cover.
• Verdict: Classy handicapper, but vulnerable to less exposed rivals.

Rhoscolyn (OR 100, 9-8, Draw 5) – Goodwood Specialist

• 6 wins at the track, 2021 + 2024 versions of this race.
• Last win came here on soft, but handles good too.
• Inconsistent away from this track, but always a danger at Goodwood.
• Verdict: Old warrior, well drawn, place chance at least.

Great Acclaim (OR 96, 9-4, Draw 2) – Headgear Spark

• Blinkers have turned him around: won Chepstow (RPR 114), unlucky runner-up at Goodwood earlier.
• Travels strongly, holds form in big fields.
• Verdict: On the upgrade, drawn well to track pace.

Palmar Bay (OR 96, 9-4, Draw 1) – Lightly Raced Improver

• Chester win (RPR 110) latest, showing more polish.
• 7f looks best trip, strong traveller.
• 5lb claimer helps.
• Negatives: Needs to prove effectiveness at big-field helter-skelter.
• Verdict: Still unexposed, interesting if he handles the hurly-burly.

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3. Main Dangers

• Billyjoh (OR 92, 9-0, Draw 10): Consistent without winning; often placed in big 7f handicaps; held by draw.
• Gorak (OR 92, 9-0, Draw 6): C&D winner, but looks handicapped to ceiling; place squeak.
• Darkness (OR 88, 8-10, Draw 8): O’Meara 7yo, recent Thirsk win, but best with cut; ground too quick.
• Purosangue (OR 98, 9-6, Draw 7): Classy sprinter (RPR 119), stays 6f strongly; this 7f stretch may blunt him.
• Principality (OR 91, 8-8, Draw 11): Won here on heavy, but this faster ground less ideal; draw poor.
• Zoulu Chief (OR 82, 8-4, Draw 3): Dubai form inflated; well-treated now but best at 6f.

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4. Runner Scores (Suitability out of 10)

• Mudbir – 9/10 (progressive, only worry draw)
• Royal Zabeel – 8/10 (classy, but weighted up and needs cover)
• Rhoscolyn – 8/10 (track specialist, solid EW)
• Great Acclaim – 8/10 (progressive with blinkers, well drawn)
• Palmar Bay – 7/10 (unexposed, but question on big field)
• Billyjoh – 6/10 (consistent placer, lacks killer edge)
• Gorak – 6/10 (solid but exposed)
• Darkness – 5/10 (needs softer)
• Purosangue – 5/10 (classy sprinter, trip issue)
• Principality – 5/10 (wrong ground)
• Zoulu Chief – 4/10 (best at 6f, not this)

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5. Private Tissue (my odds line)

• Mudbir 4/1
• Royal Zabeel 6/1
• Rhoscolyn 7/1
• Great Acclaim 7/1
• Palmar Bay 8/1
• Billyjoh 12/1
• Gorak 14/1
• Darkness 16/1
• Purosangue 16/1
• Principality 20/1
• Zoulu Chief 25/1

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6. Summary & Smart Play

This looks a clash between the progressive 3yo Mudbir and the proven older handicappers (Royal Zabeel, Rhoscolyn, Great Acclaim). Pace may be only steady, which suits those drawn handy low (Great Acclaim, Rhoscolyn).
Royal Zabeel carries class but is vulnerable to improvers.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Mudbir – progressive, potential Group horse, could still be well in.
• Each-way saver: Rhoscolyn – course specialist, drawn right, reliable in this exact setup.
• Value outsider: Great Acclaim – thriving with blinkers, well drawn, solid in big fields.