Race Setup & Pace:
Nine declared, standard July mile with a slight climb. No obvious trailblazer – expect a steady-to-even gallop. That should play into the hands of handy or patiently-ridden types with a turn of foot. Draw not a major factor on this straight mile unless pace is isolated, though Louie The Legend (1) and Bullington Bry (9) at the extremes could be tactically boxed in if the race unfolds down the middle.

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Strongest Contenders

• Louie The Legend (OR 68, Draw 1) – Proven
  Back in calmer waters after being overfaced at Goodwood & Epsom. Nottingham win (79 RPR) reads well, shaped as though stiff miles stretch him but Newmarket should suit better. Form franked – progressive profile.
  Score: 8/10
• Harswell Ruby (OR 68, Draw 5) – Progressive
  Reliable filly, unlucky nose 2nd at Doncaster latest. Twice rated 77 RPR this season. Strong handicap form line, adaptable and proven over C&D.
  Score: 8/10
• Perfidia (OR 62, Draw 2) – Improving
  Consistent since gelded, winner at Ripon (75 RPR) and several close defeats. Strong finisher, looks ready-made for a truly run mile on quick ground. Big chance if pace holds up.
  Score: 7.5/10

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Main Dangers

• Princess Mia (OR 64, Draw 3) – Promising
  Lightly raced, best yet when 2nd at Yarmouth last time (76 RPR). Pedigree suggests mile will suit; unexposed filly with scope.
  Score: 7/10
• Berning Hot (OR 62, Draw 8) – On the Up
  Dug deep to win at Brighton latest, career-best RPR 75. Lightly raced, shapes like further will suit but stiff mile could stretch her without cover.
  Score: 6.5/10

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Interesting Outsiders

• Bullington Bry (OR 57, Draw 9) – Not without hope. Ran well at Ffos Las latest (75 RPR) and his sole win came at Newmarket (Rowley). Needs things to fall right but has a squeak if this turns tactical.
  Score: 6/10
• Charming Fellow (OR 57, Draw 7) – C&D form (74 RPR) and lightly raced compared to some. Recent run possibly needed after layoff, could sneak into the frame if sharper today.
  Score: 5.5/10

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Ones to Oppose

• Falmouth Lad (OR 68, Draw 6) – Still learning, fair 2nd at Sandown latest but looked one-paced when winner quickened. Trip may not be ideal; more needed.
  Score: 5/10
• Saidha (OR 58, Draw 4) – Lightly raced but inconsistent and stamina for a mile unproven.
  Score: 4.5/10

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Private Tissue (my fair odds)

• Harswell Ruby – 3/1
• Louie The Legend – 7/2
• Perfidia – 9/2
• Princess Mia – 6/1
• Berning Hot – 8/1
• Bullington Bry – 10/1
• Charming Fellow – 12/1
• Falmouth Lad – 14/1
• Saidha – 20/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a filly vs gelding clash between the solid Harswell Ruby and improving Louie The Legend, with Perfidia lurking as the grinder who could pick them off late if the gallop is fair. Princess Mia appeals most of the lightly raced brigade, while Bullington Bry has a squeak at big odds.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Harswell Ruby (consistency, unlucky last time, rock-solid handicapper at this level).
• Each-way saver – Perfidia (stays strongly, peaking at the right time, fits the race setup).