JenningsBet Handicap (Class 3, 1m6f, £25,000, 3yo+, Going: Good-Firm)

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Race Shape & Tactical Angles

• Likely Pace: Even to steady. Curran and Youthful King are the two most likely pace angles; both like to be handy or lead. Percy Shelley and Arqoob are usually mid-to-held-up, while First Officer typically comes late.
• Draw: Stalls 1–5, but no strong bias at this trip on the July Course. Inside can help if pace is even, but ability will count more than draw.

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Runner Profiles

Youthful King (OR 89, Draw 4)

• Won at Sandown in June (14f) in a first-time hood, and shaped well at Salisbury prior.
• Tried 2m+ in deeper races (Ascot, Newbury, Kempton) but didn’t see it out strongly. Back to 14f looks ideal.
• Form reads well for Class 3; hood continues.
• Notebook: “Unexposed at this trip.” Trainer/jockey combo modest but horse is genuine at this level.
• Score: 7.5/10

Arqoob (OR 84, Draw 5)

• Consistent AW/turf handicapper, but struggles to put races to bed.
• Best runs this year at Kempton and Sandown (10–12f), but stamina for 14f a question. His sire’s AWD is only 8.3f.
• Trainer strike rate poor (0% last 14 days).
• Score: 5.5/10

Percy Shelley (OR 83, Draw 3)

• Two solid 2nds in July/August (Newbury 16.5f, Chester 14.4f). Has been finding one too good, but always thereabouts.
• Responds to visor; consistent at Class 4 but not yet a winner in Britain.
• Travels like a stayer, but doesn’t find much under pressure – frustrating type.
• Score: 6.5/10

First Officer (OR 78, Draw 2)

• Former Galileo with bits of smart form; won here last year (C&D, Class 4).
• This season: placed at York & Newmarket, won a small race in July (12f). Last time 7th at Windsor – found little.
• Trainer’s comments suggest this race was targeted.
• Track form (Rowley & July combined): very solid.
• Score: 7/10

Curran (OR 73, Draw 1)

• Improving 4yo, won back-to-back at Doncaster (14.5f) & Newmarket (14f, July course) in June.
• Since then: ran well at Haydock (just beaten) but found 2m at York beyond him. Recent Carlisle run below best, but had excuses.
• Notebook: “Hat-trick potential” noted after his July win.
• Off bottom weight, lightly raced, open to more progress at 1m6f.
• Score: 8/10

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Contenders Breakdown

• Strongest Contenders:
  • Curran (8/10) – progressive, proven over C&D, best handicapped.
  • Youthful King (7.5/10) – class horse in the race, effective back at 14f.
• Main Dangers:
  • First Officer (7/10) – course record strong, but a bit inconsistent.
  • Percy Shelley (6.5/10) – reliable, but lacks killer instinct.
• Interesting Outsider:
  • Arqoob (5.5/10) – stamina doubts, but could pick up pieces if race collapses late.

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Private Tissue (my odds)

• Curran – 3/1
• Youthful King – 7/2
• First Officer – 5/1
• Percy Shelley – 11/2
• Arqoob – 10/1

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Summary

This looks a race where Curran holds the strongest profile: unexposed stayer, already a winner over C&D, and still on a workable mark. Youthful King is the classy yardstick, dropping back to his optimum trip, and should run another big one. First Officer rates the solid each-way option with his Newmarket course record. Percy Shelley continues to threaten without delivering, while Arqoob’s stamina is the biggest question mark.

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Smart Play (Pro Punter View):

• Win Bet: Curran – progressive and well in at weights, targeted for this trip.
• Each-Way Saver: First Officer – consistent course performer, likely to be staying on.