Pace & Draw Angles

Goodwood over 1m6f often turns tactical unless someone ensures an honest pace. Likely pace here from Calvert (draw 5) and possibly Alpine Stroll (7) if reverting to front-running cheekpieces tactics. Sanitiser and Autumn’s Breeze can also press on, but both are unreliable. Stronger stayers held up (Tryfan, Miss Alpilles, Goblet Of Fire) could be suited if things collapse late. Low/middle draws tend to hold advantage here, so Diamond Bay (1) and Macari (2) have the best track position.

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Strongest Contenders

• Tryfan (Charlton, draw 8) – progressive profile, won over 1m6f at Salisbury (RPR 86), solid Newcastle second in Class 2, shaped like a stayer. Unproven at Goodwood but pedigree (Nathaniel) says track/trip should suit. Handles various goings. Key player if settling. Proven / Progressive.
• Diamond Bay (Ward, draw 1) – consistent and genuine, Ascot 2nd (14f, C3) in July, also won at Goodwood (14f) earlier this season. Best mark in ages, ideal draw, and Crowley booked. Proven at C&D and still well handicapped.
• Miss Alpilles (Walker, draw 4) – Sea The Stars filly who caught the eye at Chester (staying on late). Slightly unexposed over this trip, trainer in good form, and looks on the cusp of another win. Promising.

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Main Dangers

• Macari (West, draw 2) – dual-purpose horse in peak form, recent Sandown 2nd, Plumpton hurdles winner. 5lb claimer helps. May lack a gear if they sprint, but fit and tough. Proven.
• Goblet Of Fire (Henderson, draw 11) – thriving hurdler (RPRs in 120s) and a big improver on the AW last autumn. Lightly campaigned on turf, but dangerous if transferring form back. Interesting dual-code improver.
• Calvert (Teal, draw 5) – back-to-back wins at Newmarket and Ascot earlier this summer, then disappointed at Sandown. Front-runner, so could get the run of things if ignored. Pace angle.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Rockit Tommy (Chamings, draw 10) – better on AW, but shaped better at Goodwood in June (RPR 91). If rain eases ground, could sneak into the frame.
• Autumn’s Breeze (Moore, draw 9) – thriving in low-grade handicaps, but this is much tougher. Only angle is a light weight if progressing again.
• Red Flyer (Jewell, draw 6) – well handicapped (below last winning mark), but inconsistent. Needs everything to fall right.
• Sanitiser (Moore, draw 3) – two recent wins at lower level, but this grade looks beyond him.

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Runner Scores

• Tryfan – 8/10 (progressive stayer, versatile, strong form)
• Diamond Bay – 8/10 (course winner, well drawn, consistent)
• Miss Alpilles – 7.5/10 (unexposed filly, eyecatcher last time)
• Macari – 7/10 (dual-purpose, game, track draw helps)
• Goblet Of Fire – 7/10 (dual-code improver, stamina assured)
• Calvert – 6.5/10 (front-runner, could pinch it, but stamina doubts)
• Rockit Tommy – 6/10 (more AW horse, but has shown glimpses)
• Autumn’s Breeze – 5.5/10 (improving, but big class jump)
• Red Flyer – 5/10 (well handicapped, but inconsistent)
• Sanitiser – 4.5/10 (form in lesser races, stamina doubts)
• Alpine Stroll – 4/10 (regressive, better days behind him)
• Timeless Charm – 4/10 (not shown turf ability yet, risky)

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Private Tissue

• Tryfan 3/1
• Diamond Bay 4/1
• Miss Alpilles 11/2
• Macari 7/1
• Goblet Of Fire 8/1
• Calvert 10/1
• Rockit Tommy 14/1
• Autumn’s Breeze 16/1
• Red Flyer 20/1
• Sanitiser 25/1
• Alpine Stroll 33/1
• Timeless Charm 33/1

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Summary

This looks a progressive v exposed clash. The race should be run at a fair gallop, suiting the stronger stayers.

• Tryfan is the one still moving forward, his Newcastle 2nd reads very well.
• Diamond Bay looks rock-solid, loves this trip and track, and is well drawn.
• Miss Alpilles is the filly on the up and could be dangerous late.
• Macari and Goblet Of Fire are the dangers, both with different codes bolstering fitness and form.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Tryfan (progressive profile, strong form for this level)
• Each-way saver: Diamond Bay (proven C&D horse, best track draw, consistent)