Pace & Draw Setup

Not a race stacked with confirmed front-runners. Likely to be steadily run unless Voice Of Reason or Dancing Steve force matters. That scenario risks suiting those who travel kindly and can quicken. High draws not a major disadvantage over 1m4f at the Curragh, but wide stalls can force early decisions in slowly-run races.

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Key Contenders

Angelo Pio (OR 82, Draw 5) – Progressive 3yo. Back-to-back Down Royal wins (10.5f) before disappointing when favourite last time, fading tamely. Unexposed at 1m4f, pedigree (by Sottsass out of a 10.5f mare) suggests stamina will be fine. A proper class riser, still on the upgrade, and this race type fits.

Spring Dance (OR 72, Draw 12) – Promising filly from Harrington yard. Bred for this trip (Dubawi x Anamba). Broke maiden at Dundalk in July after solid Down Royal second. Still lightly raced, unexposed, and Foley retains ride. Big potential improver now handicapping at 1m4f.

Slurricane (OR 77, Draw 11) – Dual-purpose gelding who has improved over hurdles this year and hinted at more to come back on the Flat. Not disgraced in big-field Curragh handicaps (1m2f–1m3f). Pedigree doesn’t scream stamina, but his hurdling efforts suggest he will stay. Notebook horse, could step forward at this trip.

Dancing Steve (OR 72, Draw 14) – Consistent and in form. Strong recent sequence, including Dundalk win and unlucky defeats. Second at Wolverhampton (1m6f) last time proves stamina. 7lb claim helps, and although this is stronger, he has been thriving with a busy campaign.

Solar Breeze (OR 74, Draw 13) – Tricky mare but ran well in big-field Curragh handicaps earlier this year. Better with a strong pace and possibly a little ground cut. Consistent but vulnerable to improvers.

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Dark Horses / Outsiders

• Daboya (OR 68, Draw 8) – Eyecatcher at Galway when flying late after trouble. Not fully proven at 1m4f but shaped as though she might stay if things fall right.
• Autocrat (OR 69, Draw 6) – Multiple AW winner, lower turf mark. Reliable and may run into a place if race collapses late.
• Voice Of Reason (OR 72, Draw 4) – Inconsistent but versatile. Won a claimer over hurdles and has flashes of ability. Hard to trust.

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Runner Suitability Scores (/10)

• Angelo Pio – 8.5/10 (progressive, stays, unexposed, just needs to bounce back)
• Spring Dance – 8/10 (pedigree + profile screams improvement, first handicap a positive)
• Slurricane – 7/10 (dual-purpose improver, stamina the unknown, interesting)
• Dancing Steve – 7/10 (in form, proven stayer, but plenty of racing this summer)
• Solar Breeze – 6.5/10 (honest mare, but exposed vs improvers)
• Daboya – 6/10 (eyecatcher, stamina not certain, place chance)
• Autocrat – 6/10 (handy mark on turf, but not as potent as on AW)
• Voice Of Reason – 5.5/10 (inconsistent, unreliable but talented on best day)
• Sir Callisto – 5/10 (hard to weigh up, AW/FR form better)
• Frank Pickle – 4.5/10 (unproven at trip, inexperienced)
• Solar Breeze – 6.5/10 (needs a strong pace, not improving)
• Dream Escape – 5/10 (dual-code, inconsistent, risky)
• Eighty Eight – 4.5/10 (best on AW, turf stamina doubts)
• Miss Nifty – 4.5/10 (in-and-out filly, questionable attitude)
• Goldino – 4/10 (Bolger project filly, but looks well short for this level)

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Private Tissue (fair odds)

• Angelo Pio 3/1
• Spring Dance 4/1
• Slurricane 6/1
• Dancing Steve 7/1
• Daboya 10/1
• Solar Breeze 12/1
• Autocrat 14/1
• Voice Of Reason 16/1
• Others 20/1+

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks like a race that will go to an improver rather than a battle-hardened handicapper.

• Top Win Bet: Angelo Pio – lightly raced, progressive, bred to stay this trip, and O’Brien’s team often excel with 3yo handicappers stepping up in trip.
• Main Danger: Spring Dance – very unexposed filly, strong staying pedigree, looks tailor-made for 1m4f handicaps.
• Each-Way Saver: Slurricane – versatile dual-purpose gelding, genuine type, could relish this trip now.

Smart Play:
Win – Angelo Pio
Saver EW – Slurricane