4.45 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed, Class 1, 5f, Good to Firm)

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A sharp, speed-heavy 5f listed event for juveniles. York’s flat sprint track tends to reward pure pace and early balance – a race likely run at a strong gallop with several forward-goers in here. Draw not critical on fast ground but low-to-middle often edges it if pace concentrates there.


Pace & Tactical Setup

  • Front-runners: Dickensian, Military Code, Our Cody, Revival Power.
  • Pressers: Silent Applause, Kinnalargy, Zelaina.
  • Held-up / Mid-div: Rydale Frosty (Jamie Spencer ride suggests patient tactics), Exclamation.

Expect a furious early pace – Havana Grey progeny (Revival Power, Rydale Frosty, Kinnalargy) all travel strongly. That could set it up for one stalking the speed, though York rarely sees deep closers win if the pace isn’t suicidal.


Contenders

Strongest Contenders

  • Military Code (Godolphin/Appleby, Buick) – Two wins at 5f before finding 6f too far at Ascot. Forgive Goodwood run (wrong part of track). Sandown Listed second is rock-solid. Back to 5f on fast ground looks ideal; professional type with class form. Proven/Progressive.
  • Dickensian (Kevin Ryan) – Windsor Castle second marked him smart; subsequent runs confirm speed but still a touch free. York’s flying 5f should suit better than Goodwood. Looks a Listed-class colt with upside. Proven but still learning.
  • Zelaina (Karl Burke, Wathnan) – Expensive breezer, stylish debut winner, strong Queen Mary fourth. Flopped at Goodwood but excuses (keen/track). Big raw speed, may be best on a flat 5f like this. Promising with scope to bounce back.

Main Dangers

  • Revival Power (Tim Easterby) – Sister to Group 1 winner Winter Power, already Listed-placed at Goodwood. Improving with racing, best yet to come. Progressive filly, one to fear if improving again.
  • Silent Applause (Appleby, Doyle) – Gelded, has progressed since. Easy win in small Haydock field last time, looked professional. Now pitched in Listed grade; needs to prove against sharper types but clearly talented.
  • Rydale Frosty (David Simcock) – Shaped with promise at Goodwood when 4th despite slow start. Spencer ride suggests they’ll look to pounce late. Could be dangerous if pace collapses.

Interesting Outsider

  • Exclamation (Grace Harris) – Form is below the best here but Doncaster win showed ability on softer. Likely outclassed at Listed level on fast ground. Place angle only if rain.

Less Likely

  • Kinnalargy – Progressing but may be better over 6f; probably outpaced in this company.
  • Our Cody – Game filly, won at Windsor, but limitations exposed last time. Faces much stronger opposition.

Runner Scores /10

  • Military Code – 9/10 (Proven class, right conditions, Buick factor).
  • Dickensian – 8.5/10 (Strong Windsor Castle run, York ideal, just needs to settle).
  • Zelaina – 8/10 (Huge raw talent, dangerous bounce-back angle).
  • Revival Power – 8/10 (Big pedigree, progressive, still learning).
  • Silent Applause – 7.5/10 (On the up, but this is his test).
  • Rydale Frosty – 7/10 (Pace collapse player, Spencer ride notable).
  • Kinnalargy – 6/10 (Likeable, but lacks top-end 5f gears).
  • Our Cody – 5.5/10 (Brave filly, but others stronger).
  • Exclamation – 5/10 (Softer-ground angle, likely outclassed).

Private Tissue Odds

  • Military Code 3/1
  • Dickensian 7/2
  • Zelaina 9/2
  • Revival Power 6/1
  • Silent Applause 8/1
  • Rydale Frosty 10/1
  • Kinnalargy 14/1
  • Our Cody 20/1
  • Exclamation 25/1

Summary

This will be fast from the start. Military Code looks the most solid with Group 2 form and Buick aboard. Dickensian, with that Windsor Castle form, could relish York’s sharper 5f. Zelaina has a “bounce back to brilliance” profile – very fast but still raw. Revival Power, sister to Winter Power, is another improving filly who may well peak in late summer.


Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

  • Win bet: Military Code – class and setup point to him.
  • Each-way saver: Zelaina – flat 5f could see her back to Ascot form, big price if overlooked.
  • Dark horse: Rydale Frosty – Spencer may thread a late run if leaders overcook it.

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