Pace & Draw

• Pace looks honest: Love You Back (has gone forward) and Launceston (Prescott, likely to be ridden handy) could ensure a fair gallop.
• Draw at Windsor over this trip isn’t too restrictive, though low-to-middle is usually a slight plus.
• Styles suggest mid-division/closers may get the right tow if the front-runners cut each other’s throats.

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Strongest Contenders

Love You Back – Proven / Progressive

• Consistent in stronger company (solid runs in Class 5s, notably 2nd at Kempton).
• Shaped as if this trip could suit, though sometimes pulls hard and fails to finish strongly.
• RPR peak 70 – best in field. If settling, very hard to beat in this weaker grade.

Launceston – Promising / Prescott Improver

• Typical Prescott project: down the field in 7f maidens, then big step forward on handicap debut (2nd at Bath, 1m2f).
• Shaped as though today’s trip would help; bred for 1m4f+.
• Yard in strong recent form, Luke Morris keeps ride.

Clipsham Noble – Progressive type, stamina test now

• Got a breakthrough win at Brighton and has since run several sound races, including when staying on at Leicester and Lingfield.
• Notebook: looked like further would suit. Today’s extra yardage could unlock improvement.

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Main Dangers

Marmalade Kid – Exposed but improving

• Much better effort when 3rd at Bath latest (RPR 65).
• Trainer winless lately, but Hector Crouch an upgrade. Could run on late.

Three On Thursday – Consistent but limited

• Several placed efforts, but keeps finding one or two too strong.
• Looks more a place angle than win material.

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Interesting Outsiders

Dancing Bay – Irish recruit

• Mixed Irish form, but one or two RPRs (64) suggest ability.
• Change of scenery could spark him, though stable not firing.

Just Adair – Lightly raced

• By Ghaiyyath, stamina likely.
• Maiden form moderate but shaped better than bare result on debut. Still unexposed and could improve now handicapping at right trip.

Fornido – Big odds maiden

• Placed twice at big prices in AW maidens, but overall poor profile. Needs huge leap.

Resilient Lady – Suspect stayer

• Best effort over shorter, poor latest. Step up in trip looks wrong.

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Runner Ratings (Suitability /10)

• Love You Back – 8.5/10 (class drop, best RPRs, but must settle)
• Launceston – 8/10 (Prescott improver, bred for trip, right race)
• Clipsham Noble – 7.5/10 (staying-on type, could improve for trip)
• Marmalade Kid – 6.5/10 (last run encouraging, but needs more to win)
• Three On Thursday – 6/10 (solid but limited, place angle only)
• Dancing Bay – 6/10 (Irish runs show ability, hard to gauge)
• Just Adair – 5.5/10 (unexposed, could step up but nothing solid yet)
• Fornido – 4/10 (poor overall, hard to fancy)
• Resilient Lady – 3.5/10 (stamina concern, poor strike yard)

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Private Tissue (approx odds)

• Love You Back 11/4
• Launceston 3/1
• Clipsham Noble 9/2
• Marmalade Kid 7/1
• Three On Thursday 8/1
• Dancing Bay 10/1
• Just Adair 12/1
• Fornido 25/1
• Resilient Lady 33/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a typical low-grade 3yo staying handicap but with some progressive types against exposed rivals. Love You Back has already shown form above this level and, if settling better, is the one to beat. Launceston looks a clear danger as a Prescott improver stepping up in trip, while Clipsham Noble is interesting now stretching out beyond 10f.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Love You Back (class dropper with best form)
• Each-way saver – Clipsham Noble (could improve for the trip, reliable handicapper)