Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:

A competitive 3m1½f handicap chase on decent ground. Kilbeggan’s tight, right-handed, undulating circuit can place a premium on jumping fluency and tactical speed, especially in the later stages. Pace appears strong, with several front-end types – notably Dorans Law, Sea Aster, and Bal Kauto – likely to force the issue. This could favour a well-positioned stalker with proven stamina.

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Strongest Contenders:

Invictus Machin – Proven

Strong profile in staying chases, ran to a career-best RPR 132 in a narrow defeat at Limerick in March. Flopped when falling early at Roscommon but showed fitness with a respectable ninth in a big-field Galway heat. Jumping remains a concern (2 falls in last 6 starts), but he has proven stamina, is well treated on 122, and connections are notable. If he gets into rhythm, he should be bang there. Capable, but risky.

Nouvotic – Promising

Rapid improver for Henry de Bromhead; 2 wins and a place from 3 chase starts, including a gritty win over 2m4f at Wexford. Steps up in trip here, which looks very likely to suit given his grinding style and quotes from the yard. RPRs of 122–131 are already competitive and he remains unexposed at the trip, with scope for further progress. Solid jumper and may well be a graded horse in time.

Bal Kauto – Progressive

On a roll over hurdles, routing fields at Kilbeggan and Galway with ease. Previously 2-2 over fences, including a fluent win at Clonmel. RPR 136 over fences is the best figure in the field, and he thrives on good ground and in the summer months. Will try to dominate, and if the pace isn’t overly contested, he could prove tough to peg back. Only worry is jockey’s lack of chasing experience.

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Main Dangers:

Dorans Law – Proven

Tough and game type, strong form in summer staying chases. Impressive winner last time at Wexford off 109 (RPR 134), and a small rise still leaves him well treated. He grinds rather than quickens, and with others to take him on up front, he could find this race a bit sharp if pressed too soon. But with a clean round, place claims are very strong.

Ho My Lord – Regressive

High-class French recruit who has run with credit but failed to land a blow in three Irish handicaps. Eyecatching chase debut behind Il Etait Temps but mark looks stiff on Irish form. Needs to settle and jump better – possibly still learning the ropes. Not one to dismiss, but the weight may anchor him unless finding more.

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Interesting Outsiders:

Sea Aster – Capable but Inconsistent

Has placed form behind Wasdell Dundalk and won off 117 two starts ago. Struggled to back that up and has a patchy record. Tactically vulnerable when pressured and unseated in two of last five. Stays well but profile doesn’t scream reliability, especially against younger rivals.

Fairyhill Run – Regressive

Veteran mare who ran okay two back but has failed to complete in 4 of her last 9, including last time out. Struggles in this grade now, and best form is behind her.

Hascoeur Clermont – Regressive

Useful chaser at one point (RPR 144), but tailed off or pulled up on five of last six runs. Only noteworthy run this year was third in a G3, but that looks a flash in the pan. Hard to support.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• Nouvotic: 8/10 – Unexposed, stays, progressing, handles the track type.
• Bal Kauto: 8/10 – Flying form, 2-2 over fences, loves summer ground.
• Invictus Machin: 7/10 – Form strong, stamina assured, risky jumper.
• Dorans Law: 7/10 – Reliable grinder, last-time winner, but pace pressure could expose him.
• Sea Aster: 5/10 – Capable but quirky, vulnerable late.
• Ho My Lord: 5/10 – French form better, but hasn’t translated yet.
• Fairyhill Run: 4/10 – Little upside, profile on the slide.
• Hascoeur Clermont: 3/10 – Long way below peak form, recent efforts poor.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form summer chasers returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (8+ Runners):

Plenty of runners, and Dorans Law looks a dependable each-way proposition if avoiding a pace duel. Also, Invictus Machin has frame potential at fair odds if jumping cleanly.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• Nouvotic – 3/1
• Bal Kauto – 7/2
• Invictus Machin – 5/1
• Dorans Law – 6/1
• Sea Aster – 10/1
• Ho My Lord – 12/1
• Fairyhill Run – 16/1
• Hascoeur Clermont – 25/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start over fences.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):

A race where proven summer jumping form and stamina will count. With plenty of pace on, this could collapse late – bringing into play those who can travel and pick off tiring rivals. Nouvotic is the standout: unexposed, grinding style, improving fast. Bal Kauto is respected but more exposed, and Invictus Machin is a danger to all if he jumps fluently.

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Smart Play:

• Win Bet – Nouvotic (progressive, stays well, likely more to come)
• Each-Way Saver – Dorans Law (tough stayer, in-form, solid each-way profile)