Conditions: Good ground, 16 runners, straight 7f at Naas (fair track, draw neutral unless extreme).

Pace setup: Several with early pace (Conquering Marin, Wild Berries, Running Point), so should be run at a true/even gallop. Hold-up fillies with a finishing kick could be suited.

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Strongest Contenders

Luna Mia (M D O’Callaghan) – Proven / Class Edge

• Best form in the book, ran with credit in G2 and Listed company.
• Naas 7f looks ideal after being stretched at Goodwood (fast pace over 5f) and holding her own at the Curragh.
• RPR 98 is a standout. Clear form pick.
• Big chance if handling the straight 7f.

Elly Bay (J P Murtagh) – Progressive / Promising

• Consistent in maidens, form at Leopardstown (soft) and Bellewstown (good).
• Proven stamina at 7f–1m.
• Trainer adept at placing fillies.
• Profile says a maiden like this is well within reach.

Running Point (J P Fahey) – Interesting Outsider / Dark Horse

• Only start: solid 5th at Leopardstown over 6.5f at 200/1, shaping as one to improve for the run.
• RPR 94 a very big debut figure relative to this race.
• Likely to progress again upped to 7f.

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Main Dangers

Conquering Marin (Donnacha O’Brien)

• Green but shaped okay at Gowran on debut, staying on late.
• Step up to 7f should suit.
• Stable’s fillies usually come forward 2nd time.

Bear Right (Mrs J Harrington)

• Shaped with some promise at Galway, not knocked about.
• By Kodi Bear, so 7f fine.
• Could sneak into places if improving.

Coolangatta (Donnacha O’Brien)

• Nicely bred (Australia filly).
• Yard fields two, often one is educational.
• Hard to weigh up but respected given connections.

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Suitability Scores

• Luna Mia – 9/10 (Proven class, should be too strong if reproducing Curragh form)
• Elly Bay – 8.5/10 (Solid maiden form, improving, handles 7f)
• Running Point – 8/10 (Big debut RPR, scope to step forward again)
• Conquering Marin – 7.5/10 (Likely improver for step up, Donnacha factor)
• Bear Right – 6.5/10 (Can progress, place angle)
• Coolangatta – 6.5/10 (Pedigree promising, stable 2nd string?)
• Hazrama – 6/10 (Weld debutante, market check needed)
• Wild Berries – 6/10 (Experienced, exposed but has run in strong company)
• Others – 5 or lower (Look outclassed / long prices reflect ability)

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Private Tissue (Raceform Data Estimate)

• Luna Mia 9/4
• Elly Bay 7/2
• Running Point 11/2
• Conquering Marin 8/1
• Bear Right 12/1
• Coolangatta 14/1
• Hazrama 14/1
• Wild Berries 20/1
• Others 25/1+

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Summary

This looks a good maiden with depth but Luna Mia sets a clear standard on her Group form. The straight 7f at Naas is a strong test and should play to her stamina and class.

Elly Bay has been knocking on the door and looks the solid danger, while Running Point is the one who could improve sharply second time out and is overpriced relative to her debut RPR.

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Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

• Win Bet: Luna Mia (class edge, this is easier than recent assignments).
• Each-Way Saver: Running Point (improving profile, underestimated debut run).

Keep an eye on Elly Bay for steady market support – she looks the type Murtagh could have teed up for a maiden win.