Pace / Draw Angles:
Plenty of prominent racers here, so likely to be run at an even-to-strong gallop. High draws often favoured on the straight mile at Goodwood, but with stalls centre and a full spread, middle-to-high looks best. Hold-up types will need luck in running.

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Strongest Contenders

Great Chieftain (Oliver Cole) – Proven & Progressive
Arrives in top form with back-to-back wins at Haydock and Newmarket, showing tactical versatility. Ascending through the handicap (up 11lb in last two wins) but still looks ahead of the assessor. Handles quick ground and already a winner at Goodwood. Big chance.

Linwood (Richard Hannon) – Promising
Lightly raced colt with strong profile; close third in valuable Goodwood handicap latest, shaping as though a stiff test at 1m suits. Likely still improving, and Jamie Spencer is an interesting booking if the pace collapses.

Tribal Chief (David Menuisier) – Dangerous
Consistent handicapper, ran a stormer in the Golden Mile (6th/15) off similar mark. Reliable on quick or soft, and this slightly easier race setup could see him go close.

Mister Winston (Andrew Balding) – Progressive 3yo
Improving rapidly, bolting up at Newmarket last time. This is a big step up in class, but his weight-for-age allowance gives him a chance if he continues his upward curve.

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Main Dangers

Treble Tee (Crisfords) – lightly raced 3yo, strong 2nd last time; not fully exposed.
Plantadream (Jewell) – exposed but loves a strong-run mile, placed here last season.

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Interesting Outsiders

Organ (Martyn Meade) – thriving before flopping over 10f last time; drop back to 1m a positive.
Lunario (Luke Dace) – bang in form at lower level, but up 7lb and this is much tougher.

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Runner Scores (Suitability out of 10)

• Great Chieftain – 9/10 – thriving, track proven, strong claims.
• Linwood – 8.5/10 – unexposed, Goodwood form, each-way player.
• Tribal Chief – 8/10 – solid profile, strong handicap runs in bigger fields.
• Mister Winston – 7.5/10 – 3yo improving, class rise but gets weight.
• Treble Tee – 7/10 – scope, but needs to prove toughness at Goodwood.
• Plantadream – 6.5/10 – consistent, but may lack change of gear at this level.
• Organ – 6/10 – risky but interesting if bouncing back.
• Lunario – 5.5/10 – thriving, but out of depth.
• Brave Emperor – 5/10 – out of sorts, class drop helps but little recent encouragement.
• Soldier’s Empire – 4.5/10 – well handicapped on Bahrain form, UK runs poor.
• Epictetus – 4.5/10 – Group horse in past, regressed badly, risky.
• Longlai – 4/10 – old form good, recent efforts uninspiring.

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Each-Way Angles

With 12 runners and 4 places available, Linwood and Tribal Chief look ideal each-way plays: both proven in big handicaps at Goodwood and still fairly treated.

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Private Tissue (my view of fair odds)

• Great Chieftain – 7/2
• Linwood – 11/2
• Tribal Chief – 6/1
• Mister Winston – 13/2
• Treble Tee – 8/1
• Plantadream – 12/1
• Organ – 16/1
• Lunario – 20/1
• Brave Emperor – 25/1
• Soldier’s Empire – 25/1
• Epictetus – 25/1
• Longlai – 33/1

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Summary

This looks a competitive but winnable Class 3 with several improvers against exposed types. Great Chieftain is the solid one, thriving at the trip and proven under today’s setup. Linwood is the main danger, with Tribal Chief not far behind as a course specialist. The 3yo Mister Winston is the joker in the pack – rapidly improving, but has to prove he belongs in a hot Goodwood handicap.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Great Chieftain
• Each-way saver: Linwood (course form, unexposed)