Pace / Draw Angles:
With just six runners, this shouldn’t be overly tactical, but Goodwood’s sharp mile and centre stalls mean positioning still matters. Ancient Egypt (prominent Beverley winner) and King’s Trust (pressed on debut) look natural pace influences. Green Falcon has been finishing off strongly and will likely be played late. No obvious draw bias at this field size.

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Strongest Contenders

• Green Falcon (David Menuisier / Billy Loughnane) – Progressive. RPR 91 already, strong late efforts at Haydock and Clairefontaine. Looks like a stayer in the making, and the step up to 1m on quick ground should be ideal. Group 2 Royal Lodge entry suggests stable confidence. Big chance if pace holds up.
• King’s Trust (John & Thady Gosden / Robert Havlin) – Promising. Encouraging Newmarket debut despite slow start, shaping as if improvement is guaranteed. By Kingman, should appreciate this trip. Major contender without a penalty.
• Ancient Egypt (Charlie Johnston / Rowan Scott) – Proven but Penalised. £1.1m Frankel colt, showed grit at Beverley but form hasn’t been franked and now carries a 7lb penalty. Still has class, but vulnerable against improving types.

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Main Dangers / Interesting Outsiders

• Alfaraz (Andrew Balding / Jason Watson) – Newcomer. Nathaniel colt from a strong yard, dam a Listed winner. Likely to improve with time and stamina, but yard’s 2yo debutants often improve for a run. Market check essential.
• Ibn Sirin (Harry Charlton / Trevor Whelan) – Debutante. Nicely bred by Al Kazeem, half-brother to solid performers. Missed debut at Ffos Las due to dirty scope, so fitness a slight concern. Potential type but may need outing.
• My Old Mate (Gary & Josh Moore / Tom Queally) – Exposed. Beaten 14 lengths here on debut. By Wootton Bassett but looked green and weak. Long-term project rather than today’s player.

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Runner Scores (suitability today)

• Green Falcon – 9/10 (ideal conditions, progressive, stamina on side)
• King’s Trust – 8/10 (debut promise, should step forward, Gosden angle)
• Ancient Egypt – 7/10 (penalty a concern, but raw ability undeniable)
• Alfaraz – 6/10 (interesting pedigree, but debut run needed for clues)
• Ibn Sirin – 5/10 (pedigree fine, but missed debut raises questions)
• My Old Mate – 2/10 (too much to prove at this stage)

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Private Tissue (fair odds estimate)

• Green Falcon – 9/4
• King’s Trust – 5/2
• Ancient Egypt – 3/1
• Alfaraz – 7/1
• Ibn Sirin – 10/1
• My Old Mate – 40/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This has the feel of a classy novice with Royal Lodge/Dewhurst clues. Ancient Egypt has the profile but his Beverley form plus 7lb penalty looks a big ask. Green Falcon is already proven at this trip, shapes like a strong stayer, and sets the standard. King’s Trust is the obvious improver and could easily progress past him. Alfaraz is respected but best watched on debut.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet – Green Falcon (progressive, conditions ideal, no penalty)
• Saver – King’s Trust (big improvement expected from debut run)