Going: Good to Firm | Stalls: Centre | Field: 6 runners

Race Shape & Draw

• Small field, stalls centre should neutralise any draw bias.
• Likely Pace: Noble Guest and Papa Cocktail can go forward; Bill Plumb and Bluebells Boy sit handy; Juno Star/Invincible Melody more mid-div. Pace looks even–solid, no obvious burn-up.

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Strongest Contenders

• Noble Guest (George Margarson, Jack Mitchell) – Progressive 3yo, career-best win here over 7f last time, travelled kindly and scored with something in hand. Up 5lb but open to further improvement. Drop back to 6f is fine given how strongly he travelled. Proven, improving.
• Papa Cocktail (Michael Herrington, Dylan Hogan) – Long-time maiden but deserved win at Doncaster LTO (6f, GF), strong through the line. Up 5lb but has previously run well off this mark. Consistent at this level. Proven, reliable.

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Main Dangers

• Juno Star (Philip McBride, Jack Doughty) – Filly who keeps knocking on the door, career-low mark now. Forgive Brighton run (track bias). 3rd here over 5f earlier summer suggests C&D fine. Interesting outsider, could bounce back.
• Invincible Melody (Stuart Williams, Ray Dawson) – 10-race maiden but several placed runs off similar marks. Excuses past two starts (soft ground, then trip too far). First-time visor could spark him. Dangerous if it clicks.

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Others

• Bill Plumb (Phil McEntee, Daniel Muscutt) – AW performer, just one previous turf run. Running better than bare results, but turf suitability a question mark. Place squeak only.
• Bluebells Boy (Robert Eddery, Neil Callan) – Old sprinter, multiple wins in past but inconsistent, headgear back on. Recent runs suggest decline, needs revival. Regressive.

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Runner Ratings (Suitability /10)

• Noble Guest – 8.5/10 (progressive, ideal setup, likely fav)
• Papa Cocktail – 8/10 (solid form, reliable, respected)
• Juno Star – 7/10 (well handicapped, needs luck)
• Invincible Melody – 6.5/10 (maiden, visor interesting)
• Bill Plumb – 6/10 (more AW than turf, needs improvement)
• Bluebells Boy – 5/10 (past peak, risky)

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Private Tissue (Fair Odds)

• Noble Guest 2/1
• Papa Cocktail 5/2
• Juno Star 5/1
• Invincible Melody 6/1
• Bill Plumb 10/1
• Bluebells Boy 14/1

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Summary & Smart Play

The race revolves around Noble Guest (progressive, Yarmouth winner, can follow up) and Papa Cocktail (genuine handicapper, strong finisher at Doncaster). Both should be in the mix again.

• Smart Play – WIN: Noble Guest (unexposed 3yo, strong Yarmouth profile)
• Each-Way Saver: Juno Star (well treated, ignore Brighton flop, could outrun odds)