Pace & Draw Angles:
No obvious front-runner – could be a steadily run race. Inside/mid draws usually a help over this trip at Naas, especially if pace is muddling. High numbers (e.g. Complete Fiction in 14, Lady Plimsoll in 16) risk covering extra ground.

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Strongest Contenders

Elusive Duke – Proven/Progressive (9/2)
Leopardstown winner (9f, good) and unlucky at Galway on stable debut. Claimer removes 4lb so effectively racing off same mark as his win. Well drawn in 3 and still looks on the upgrade.

Paddydaddy – Promising (13/2)
Knocking on the door at this trip (2nd at Down Royal, 4th in a decent Ballinrobe maiden). Stays well and could easily find a winning opportunity at this level.

Lady Plimsoll – Progressive (11/2)
Won a 1m1f claimer on stable debut and shaped like further would suit. Unexposed compared to most, but drawn 16 so tactics will be key.

Tartaraghan – Consistent (7/1)
In fine form earlier in summer (1st Navan, 2nd Sligo, 3rd Down Royal). Latest AW run can be forgiven (behind Church Mountain who got an easy lead). Solid profile.

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Main Dangers

Candidly – Untapped Potential (8/1)
Blueblood pedigree (Churchill x Nell Gwyn). Has shown little in maidens but now enters handicaps in blinkers. Big “go day” profile if the headgear works – O’Brien rarely wastes runs in this grade.

Four White Fury – Promising (9/1)
6th of 21 on handicap debut at Leopardstown (stayed on late). Will improve with experience and trip should suit.

Church Mountain – Exposed but Resurgent (16/1)
Bolted up at Dundalk last time, but hit with an 11lb rise. Capable on turf (won off higher before), but risky to follow up.

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Interesting Outsiders

Complete Fiction (14/1) – Won this race last year, same jockey again. Not much Flat form since but wouldn’t be a shock if connections aimed him here for a repeat.
Picpoul (16/1) – Rarely wins, but occasionally sneaks into the frame off low weights.

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Runner Scores (Suitability out of 10)

• Elusive Duke – 8.5/10 (well drawn, form solid, progressive)
• Paddydaddy – 8/10 (strong stayer, consistent, win feels close)
• Lady Plimsoll – 7.5/10 (talent there, but drawn wide)
• Tartaraghan – 7.5/10 (consistent but may need luck from off pace)
• Candidly – 7/10 (potential “springer”, but risky)
• Four White Fury – 7/10 (scope to improve, but raw)
• Church Mountain – 6.5/10 (up 11lb, less convincing back on turf)
• Complete Fiction – 6.5/10 (course winner, revival possible)
• Picpoul – 5/10 (rarely wins, place only)
• Others – 3–5/10 (most exposed or unreliable)

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Private Tissue (Fair Odds)

• Elusive Duke 4/1
• Paddydaddy 5/1
• Lady Plimsoll 6/1
• Tartaraghan 6/1
• Candidly 8/1
• Four White Fury 9/1
• Church Mountain 10/1
• Complete Fiction 12/1
• Picpoul / Great Mover / others 16/1+

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Summary

This looks a competitive 3yo+ handicap with several unexposed improvers against some old stagers. Elusive Duke brings the most solid and progressive recent form, well placed to strike from stall 3. Paddydaddy is knocking hard on the door and looks a big player, while Lady Plimsoll is a dark horse if overcoming her draw. The “joker in the pack” could be Candidly, who is bred to be much better than this grade and may improve for handicaps/headgear.

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Smart Play

Win Bet – Elusive Duke (well-handicapped, progressive, well drawn)
Each-Way Saver – Paddydaddy (solid profile, should be in the mix at fair odds)
Wild Card – Candidly (pedigree + headgear angle = potential to spike forward today)