Pace / Draw Angles:
No out-and-out front-runner here, so pace may be muddling unless something makes it. Star Harbour has gone forward in the past but more often tracks leaders. Reyenzi, Cap Saint Martin, and Molto Amichi likely to be mid-div. Spoken Truth and Tashir can be dropped in. With a small field and fair draw spread, tactics could decide this—Ben Coen may look to control matters on Reyenzi.

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Strongest Contenders

• Reyenzi (J P Murtagh, 4yo, OR 102) – Progressive profile, first time in a handicap after Group 3 efforts. Gelded since Royal Ascot where he again wandered under pressure. If the operation helps him focus, he’s well-treated at this level and has scope to rate higher than a handicapper. Strongest claims.
• Spoken Truth (D K Weld, 4yo, OR 90) – Lightly raced Frankel colt, only six starts. Ran with credit on comeback at the Curragh, then had excuses in a messy small-field Gowran race. Capable of better and may improve for a return to 10f+. Dangerous.
• Molto Amichi (Eoin Griffin, 4yo, OR 79) – Consistent but still a maiden after ten runs. Hit a flat spot here last time when well-backed, but stayed on. Effective over C&D and might sneak into the frame again, though looks vulnerable for win purposes.

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Main Dangers

• Cap Saint Martin (Joseph O’Brien, 3yo, OR 84) – Won a Curragh maiden last backend. Disappointed in two runs this term but gelded since. Unexposed and could bounce back.
• Star Harbour (A McGuinness, 9yo, OR 96) – Veteran with seven turf wins, placed last time on AW. Solid but exposed and vulnerable to improvers.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Tashir (J P Murtagh, 3yo, OR 82) – Stablemate of Reyenzi, 5lb wrong at weights, but some maiden promise and gelded now. Could step forward on handicap debut; market likely to guide.
• Ephesus (D G Hogan, 4yo, OR 78) – Useful over hurdles, but flat form moderate since leaving Ballydoyle. Hard to recommend unless race collapses.

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Runner Scores (suitability rating /10)

• Reyenzi – 9/10 (class edge, gelded, unexposed)
• Spoken Truth – 8/10 (needs things to fall right, still potential)
• Cap Saint Martin – 7/10 (could bounce back post-op, but questions)
• Molto Amichi – 7/10 (consistent but looks exposed)
• Star Harbour – 6/10 (solid but vulnerable to improvers)
• Tashir – 5/10 (unproven, long handicap, market check needed)
• Ephesus – 3/10 (better over hurdles, flat form regressive)

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Private Tissue (fair odds estimate)

• Reyenzi – 7/4
• Spoken Truth – 4/1
• Cap Saint Martin – 11/2
• Molto Amichi – 7/1
• Star Harbour – 8/1
• Tashir – 12/1
• Ephesus – 25/1

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Summary

This revolves around Reyenzi, who brings Group-race form into a handicap for the first time and looks the class act if gelding has helped him concentrate. Spoken Truth is second choice, lightly raced and open to improvement. Cap Saint Martin is interesting after his own gelding operation, while Molto Amichi looks booked for another place.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Reyenzi (class edge, handicap debut, gelded).
• Each-way saver – Spoken Truth (if 7/1+ available, still unexposed and could step forward).