Race Shape & Pace

• Likely strong tactical element: Deep Water Bay (front-runner, Prescott/Morris) expected to dictate, with Youthful King another who likes to be forward but may struggle to sustain 2m pace.
• Belgravian and Kitty Foyle are typically held up/waited with, giving a nice contrast in running styles.
• Draw irrelevant at this trip.

Main Contenders

Belgravian (Progressive, 3yo, Balding/Watson)

• Record since handicapping: 1211.
• Cheekpieces & waiting ride working well, stamina clearly improved for 2m.
• 7lb rise for decisive Haydock win but still looks unexposed at the trip.
• Style suits likely pace scenario (stalking Deep Water Bay).

Deep Water Bay (Progressive, 3yo, Prescott/Morris)

• Profile: 121611.
• Made all over 2m at Newbury twice, cheekpieces key.
• Up 5lb but still thriving, yard excels with progressive stayers.
• Danger of setting steady fractions and controlling race from the front.

Aggagio (Exposed but course specialist, Moore/Lewis)

• 4 wins at Goodwood, thrives on soft ground, but versatile enough.
• 5th over 2m4f at the Festival, trip stretched him.
• On bare form, a place contender, though ground may be livelier than ideal.

Kitty Foyle (Lightly raced, 5yo, Daisy Hitchins/Leavy)

• Course winner (1m6f) last August, progressive profile before hurdling spell.
• Two solid placed runs at Newbury behind Deep Water Bay & Almuhit.
• Consistent and reliable, but might find one too strong again.

Outsiders

• Youthful King: Best at 1m6f, stamina questionable over 2m. Ran yesterday, possible bounce risk.
• Teorie: Dual hurdle runner-up but Flat mark looks stiff, others more compelling.

Runner Scores (suitability 10 = perfect fit)

• Belgravian – 9/10 (progressive, tactically suited)
• Deep Water Bay – 9/10 (progressive, danger if dominating)
• Aggagio – 7/10 (course form, slight ground question)
• Kitty Foyle – 7/10 (reliable, but always finding one better)
• Youthful King – 5/10 (trip issue, recent quick turnaround)
• Teorie – 4/10 (hurdles form stronger, Flat a concern)

Private Tissue (my odds)

• Belgravian 2/1
• Deep Water Bay 9/4
• Aggagio 5/1
• Kitty Foyle 6/1
• Youthful King 14/1
• Teorie 25/1

Summary

This sets up as a match between the progressive 3yos:

• Deep Water Bay (front-running grinder, tough to pass)
• Belgravian (patiently-ridden closer, thriving at 2m).

Goodwood’s undulations + race setup may just tilt it to Belgravian, who can stalk and pounce late if Deep Water Bay doesn’t get away.

Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

• Win bet: Belgravian – upward curve, suited by race shape.
• Each-way saver: Aggagio – if odds allow, strong course record, could sneak into frame.