Pace & Draw Angles:
Cartmel is a quirky, sharp track with a long run-in. Juvenile hurdles here can become messy if the pace collapses, but with Dignam a smooth-travelling type and Junkyard Dog having raced prominently before, this shouldn’t be a crawl. Expect a sensible gallop, with stamina at the trip still a question for a few of these ex-Flat types.

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Strongest Contenders

• Dignam (Joseph O’Brien) – Proven, Progressive
  Has transferred his classy Flat form seamlessly to hurdles, winning well at Newton Abbot and Uttoxeter. Carries a double penalty but he jumped fluently in both wins and sets a standard far beyond this field. Cartmel’s sharp turns and long run-in present a new test, but his professionalism suggests he’ll cope. The clear class act.
• Junkyard Dog (Iain Jardine) – Promising
  Ex-O’Brien inmate who won a Navan Flat handicap before a fair hurdling debut (3rd, beaten 8l by Minella Study). Flopped on stable debut back on the Flat but retains ability. The main threat if bouncing back, though he looks more workmanlike than flashy.
• Zaraquelle (James Owen) – Promising but Limited
  Showed some ability when 4th behind Dignam at Uttoxeter. Gets 12lb from him today, which helps, but still needs major improvement to bridge the gap. More a place angle than a win danger.

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Main Dangers

• Green Asset (Mickey Bowen) – Well behind Dignam last time, exposed.
• Urban Sky (Sam England) – Poor form since debut win, stamina a big issue.
• Big Gypsy King (James Moffatt) – Part-owned by Tyson Fury but stamina doubts are glaring; more of a novelty runner.
• Black Sky (Easterby) – Struggled badly on the Flat; little to recommend.

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Runner Scores (Suitability out of 10)

• Dignam – 9.5/10 (clear class edge, only risk is Cartmel quirks + double penalty)
• Junkyard Dog – 6.5/10 (respectable hurdling debut, but new yard form questionable)
• Zaraquelle – 6/10 (place chance with weight concession)
• Green Asset – 4/10 (fully exposed, hard to see improvement)
• Urban Sky – 3.5/10 (stamina worry, regressive)
• Big Gypsy King – 3/10 (trip a huge doubt, profile weak)
• Black Sky – 2.5/10 (poor Flat form, no hurdles appeal)

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Dignam 2/5
• Junkyard Dog 5/1
• Zaraquelle 13/2
• Green Asset 25/1
• Urban Sky 28/1
• Big Gypsy King 33/1
• Black Sky 50/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This revolves around Dignam, whose Flat class and slick hurdling should make him too good despite the penalties and Cartmel’s eccentricities. Junkyard Dog is respected as the ex-stablemate with some hurdles ability, while Zaraquelle can pick up the pieces if the front two underperform.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Dignam (likely short but hard to oppose).
• Each-way saver: Zaraquelle (if 7/1+ and 3 places offered).