Pace & Draw Angles

• Epsom 10f handicaps can favour those who settle handy but not in a burn-up; strong gallop here unlikely with no habitual front-runner.
• Carnival Day made all last time but usually tracks pace. Soul Dance and Atherstone Warrior can be ridden prominently.
• Draw: Low-to-middle is often preferred at this trip, particularly on decent ground. Stalls 1–4 well positioned (Questionable, Manila Thriller, Bearaway, Carnival Day).

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Strongest Contenders

Soul Dance (Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy) – 3yo – OR 76
Progressive filly, unlucky nose loser at Salisbury LTO over this trip. Still unexposed, gets 7lb WFA pull, handles quick ground, and Murphy up a notable plus. Looks set to run another big race. Profile: Progressive / Promising.

Carnival Day (Jim Boyle/Pat Cosgrave) – 4yo – OR 81
Destroyed rivals over C&D (good-soft) last time; up 6lb and this is quicker ground which is a question, but clearly thriving and track suits. Profile: Proven / In-Form.

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Main Dangers

Stormy Monday (Ed Walker/Kieran Shoemark) – 3yo – OR 71
Won as a 2yo over this trip; mixed this season but shaped as if trip still fine. Ground no problem. Still relatively unexposed and drawn 8. Profile: Promising, but inconsistent.

Atherstone Warrior (Gary & Josh Moore/Jason Watson) – 3yo – OR 78
Down in class, first try at 1m2f. Pedigree suggests he’ll stay. Goodwood flop excusable in heavy ground; better judged on earlier third at Goodwood (1m, good). If settling, can improve. Profile: Promising, stamina question.

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Interesting Outsiders

Manila Thriller (Jack Channon/Saffie Osborne) – 3yo – OR 74
Windsor winner (1m2f, GF) came from off the pace. Since below par but return to fast ground at Epsom could suit. Needs a proper pace to chase down. Hold-up risk.

Questionable (Kubler/Crowley) – 4yo – OR 71
Consistent last year but regressive this term. Still 4lb above last win mark. Jim Crowley an eye-catching booking, but form questions remain.

Robbo (Gary & Josh Moore) – 4yo – OR 80
Best over 1m. Stamina doubts at 1m2f, especially round Epsom.

Bearaway (Laura Mongan) – 7yo – OR 72
Exposed and regressive on turf. Easy to oppose.

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Runner Scores (Suitability)

• Soul Dance – 9/10 (progressive, ideal trip/ground, WFA pull)
• Carnival Day – 8/10 (thriving, loves Epsom, but ground concern)
• Stormy Monday – 7/10 (trip/ground fine, but inconsistent)
• Atherstone Warrior – 7/10 (class drop, unexposed, stamina test)
• Manila Thriller – 6/10 (danger if pace strong, but needs race to fall right)
• Questionable – 5/10 (classy old form, but not firing this year)
• Robbo – 4/10 (trip doubts)
• Bearaway – 3/10 (exposed, regressive)

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Private Tissue Odds

• Soul Dance 2/1
• Carnival Day 11/4
• Stormy Monday 6/1
• Atherstone Warrior 13/2
• Manila Thriller 10/1
• Questionable 14/1
• Robbo 16/1
• Bearaway 25/1

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Summary

The race looks to revolve around Soul Dance and Carnival Day. The former is an improving 3yo with a strong WFA pull and proven on quick ground, while the latter bolted up over C&D but has to prove as effective on faster going. Stormy Monday and Atherstone Warrior are the dangers if the principals falter, while Manila Thriller could sneak into the frame if there’s an honest gallop.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Soul Dance (progressive, ideal setup, top rider)
• Each-Way Saver: Atherstone Warrior (class drop, unexposed at trip, possible improver)