4:05 Cartmel – Wicks Group Cavendish Cup Handicap Chase (Class 3, 3m1½f, Good, 0-140)

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Pace & Draw Angles

Cartmel is a sharp, idiosyncratic track where rhythm and stamina are both tested. Early position matters – front-runners can dominate if getting into a rhythm, but a stiff final climb and long run-in expose weak stayers. Likely pace here from Stans The Man and possibly Charlie Uberalles, with Sea The Clouds and Olivers Travels tracking. Hold-up types (Ilikedwayurthinkin, Shadows In The Sky) will need gaps but have proven form at the track.


Strongest Contenders

  • Olivers Travels (7/2, Sean Bowen, OR 124) – Progressive last year, holding form well this summer. Third in a hot Uttoxeter 3m2f (off today’s mark) and comes here fit and in form. If his jumping holds, has a major chance. Proven, still on workable mark.
  • Ilikedwayurthinkin (5/1, McLernon, OR 129) – Excellent Cartmel record (CD winner, strong stayer). Ran into Charlie Uberalles over too short last time. Back up in trip suits. Proven Cartmel player – strong win chance.
  • Sea The Clouds (5/2F, Hughes, OR 129) – Chase debut win here last month (2m1f soft), shaped as if further is no issue. Up 6lb but highly unexposed over fences. Progressive profile but jumping must hold.

Main Dangers

  • Charlie Uberalles (8/1, Sayer, OR 136) – Two Cartmel chase wins before PU in Summer Plate. Track return is a major plus, but stamina for 3m1½f at strong pace not certain. Place chance if bouncing back.
  • Shadows In The Sky (10/1, Owen, OR 112) – Very low weight, progressive in lower grades over fences and hurdles. Lightly raced, could be underestimated. Interesting outsider.

Others

  • Lord Accord (10/1, Mulholland, OR 123) – Well treated on old form, but not firing this summer. Needs revival.
  • Stans The Man (10/1, Pickard, OR 126) – Bold front-runner, but 8lb higher after Stratford win and looked vulnerable last twice. Pace angle only.
  • Equus Dancer (12/1, Bowen, OR 117) – Exposed, veteran now 11yo. Hard to see winning but may run on for a place.
  • Will Carver (12/1, Henderson, OR 134) – Classy at best but unreliable, inconsistent. Hard to trust after latest poor effort.

Runner Suitability Scores (/10)

  • Olivers Travels – 8.5/10 (solid recent form, proven stamina, danger if jumping holds)
  • Ilikedwayurthinkin – 8/10 (Cartmel record, trip ideal, strong contender)
  • Sea The Clouds – 7.5/10 (progressive, but must prove at trip/level)
  • Charlie Uberalles – 6.5/10 (track winner, stamina concern)
  • Shadows In The Sky – 6.5/10 (lightweight danger, needs to prove class)
  • Lord Accord – 6/10 (well handicapped but out of sorts)
  • Stans The Man – 5.5/10 (pace factor, but vulnerable late)
  • Equus Dancer – 5/10 (exposed veteran, unlikely win)
  • Will Carver – 4.5/10 (inconsistent, risky proposition)

Private Tissue Odds (Fair Value)

  • Olivers Travels 3/1
  • Ilikedwayurthinkin 4/1
  • Sea The Clouds 9/2
  • Charlie Uberalles 8/1
  • Shadows In The Sky 9/1
  • Lord Accord 12/1
  • Stans The Man 12/1
  • Equus Dancer 16/1
  • Will Carver 20/1

Summary & Smart Play

This is a competitive Cartmel staying chase. Olivers Travels has the most solid claims, with recent form and Sean Bowen booked – if his jumping holds, he’s the one to beat. Ilikedwayurthinkin is the main danger with his proven Cartmel record and step back up in trip. Sea The Clouds is the progressive type but has more to prove at this level and trip. At bigger odds, Shadows In The Sky lurks off a featherweight and could outrun his price.

Smart Play:

  • Win bet – Olivers Travels (3/1 tissue, 7/2 available)
  • Each-way saver – Ilikedwayurthinkin (5/1, strong Cartmel record)
  • Outsider to note – Shadows In The Sky (10/1, low weight, improving).

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