Pace / Draw Angles:
Cartmel’s sharp turns and stiff finish place a premium on rhythm and track position. Likely pace from No But I Will (bold front-runner, visor back on) and River Of Joy (prominent, strong stayer). Arthur’s Quay and Half Shot can sit handy, while closers like Sean Og and Nickelforce will need a clear run around the outer. With two habitual trailblazers, this could set up a searching gallop.

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Strongest Contenders

• River Of Joy (Proven / Progressive) – 2-2 over fences, including latest over C&D when knuckling down to beat No But I Will and Sean Og. Only 2lb higher, still improving, strong stayer, right profile for Cartmel.
• Sean Og (Proven) – Last year’s winner, thrives at Cartmel (two wins here this summer, ground versatile). Went down by only 1L behind River Of Joy LTO, still well treated, big player again.
• Nickelforce (Promising) – Consistent handicapper, best recent run a close second at Market Rasen (2m5f, soft). 3m stretched him last time, back to optimum today. Yard in good nick.

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Main Dangers

• No But I Will (Promising but penalised) – Made all here Saturday (2m1f), but has to back up quickly and now returns to 2m5f carrying a 7lb penalty. Resilient but setup looks tougher.
• Half Shot (Proven) – Strong Kelso win in spring, solid at Perth since, still on a workable mark. Should enjoy conditions but perhaps lacks a gear change compared to the top pair.
• Ile De Jersey (Progressive mare) – Arrives in form (Aintree hurdles win then Worcester chase), but may find Cartmel’s sharp track a bit lively under pressure.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Arthur’s Quay – 11yo but retains ability, five-time chase winner, C&D form in June, could sneak a place at fair odds.
• Yccs Portocervo – Used to be smart, recent hunter chase revival hints at ability, but hard to trust after Market Rasen PU.

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Runner Scores (Suitability /10)

• River Of Joy – 9/10 (course form, progressive, strong stayer)
• Sean Og – 8.5/10 (C&D winner, reliable, handles ground)
• Nickelforce – 8/10 (consistent, back to trip, solid mark)
• No But I Will – 7.5/10 (in form, but penalised and may not get soft lead)
• Half Shot – 7.5/10 (solid handicapper, stays, but needs a strong pace)
• Ile De Jersey – 7/10 (progressive but track/trip question)
• Arthur’s Quay – 6.5/10 (veteran but runs Cartmel well)
• Hurricane Ali – 6/10 (recent PU tempers enthusiasm)
• Yccs Portocervo – 6/10 (potentially well-handicapped but inconsistent)
• Breizh River – 5.5/10 (out of form, hard to back)
• Cuzco Du Mathan – 5.5/10 (course winner but badly out of sorts)
• Champagne Gold – 5/10 (ex-Irish class act, but little recent promise)

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Each-Way Angles (12 runners, 3 places)

• Nickelforce – consistent, back to ideal trip.
• Arthur’s Quay – seasoned Cartmel campaigner, capable of sneaking into the frame.

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Private Tissue (Fair Odds Estimate)

• River Of Joy – 3/1
• Sean Og – 4/1
• Nickelforce – 11/2
• No But I Will – 6/1
• Half Shot – 13/2
• Ile De Jersey – 8/1
• Arthur’s Quay – 12/1
• Others – 16/1+

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Summary

This has the makings of another battle between River Of Joy, Sean Og, and No But I Will, who filled the 1–2–3 over C&D last month. The mare River Of Joy is still improving and looks the one to beat, with Sean Og the danger on proven Cartmel form. Nickelforce appeals as the value each-way alternative, while No But I Will faces a tougher tactical task under penalty.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – River Of Joy (progressive mare, 2lb rise lenient, proven C&D).
• Each-way saver – Nickelforce (solid handicapper, back to trip, consistent profile).