Pace / Draw Angles

Small field, but plenty who like to be on or near the speed: Mick Collins has made the running in his novice runs, while Shaboozee was positive last time when scoring here. Abel Mabel also went forward at Wexford. Likely to be an honest, even gallop, with stamina a factor at this slightly longer trip. No draw concerns over hurdles at Ballinrobe.

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Strongest Contenders

• Shaboozee (Joseph O’Brien) – Progressive
  Improving with racing, showed good attitude to win here two weeks ago, stays well and handles this ground. Up 7lb but still looks well-treated for a yard that does well at this track.
• Mick Collins (Noel Meade) – Promising Handicap Debut
  Placed in good novices at Galway and Bellewstown, both on good ground, having won his maiden at Punchestown. Strong pace influence, but still a bit raw at his hurdles. Opening handicap mark of 123 asks a question, but scopey type.
• Castleheath (Ciaran Murphy) – Capable but Ground Query
  Fair fourth at Galway in a strong handicap but clearly better with ease underfoot. If he handles conditions, he has a chance, but suspicion is he’s vulnerable on good ground.
• Maxios Prime (P J Rothwell) – Stays Well, Prefers Softer
  Consistent mare, second at Downpatrick over further last time. Will be staying on, but her best runs have come with more cut. Still, she’s battle-hardened and shouldn’t be far away.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Abel Mabel – Upward Curve
  Got off the mark at Wexford, showing toughness. Stays well and likes good ground, but the form of that maiden looks modest. Unexposed, though.
• Elusive Ogie – Needs More
  Shock winner of a weak maiden at Limerick. Form hasn’t worked out and looks short on class against these.

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Runner Suitability Scores

• Shaboozee – 8.5/10 (proven here, still improving, slight hike but progressive)
• Mick Collins – 8/10 (solid novice form, top weight, jumping needs to tighten)
• Castleheath – 7.5/10 (well-handicapped but ground against him)
• Maxios Prime – 7/10 (reliable mare, softer ground would help)
• Abel Mabel – 6.5/10 (improver, but needs more in this class)
• Elusive Ogie – 5.5/10 (ordinary maiden form, looks vulnerable)

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Private Tissue (Raceform View)

• Shaboozee 2/1
• Mick Collins 11/4
• Castleheath 4/1
• Maxios Prime 5/1
• Abel Mabel 8/1
• Elusive Ogie 14/1

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Summary

A competitive small-field handicap where Shaboozee and Mick Collins set the standard. The former is proven at the track and continues on the upgrade, while the latter makes a fascinating handicap debut with novice form that looks solid. Castleheath has the ability but needs softer conditions, and Maxios Prime should run honestly but may find one or two too sharp on this ground.

Smart Play

• Win bet: Shaboozee – progressive profile, track form, should be hard to pass.
• Saver: Mick Collins – well-regarded type, handicap debut, solid novice efforts.