Pace & Race Shape

• Small field, likely tactical.
• Runcok has made the running before (Tipperary win) but can be scrappy at his fences – could go forward again.
• King Of Kingsfield has been ridden handy and finished off strongly at Galway.
• The Dara Man and Saint Peregrine lack the class of the top pair and likely sit off them.
  Expect a controlled, even pace with the two principals dominating.

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Strongest Contenders

King Of Kingsfield – Progressive

• High-class hurdler (placed in Grade 1).
• Only second chase start when winning well at Galway (2m2f), jumping fluently and staying on strongly.
• Tongue-tie added today, suggesting connections expect further improvement.
• Solid jumper, should confirm superiority over Runcok if repeating Galway effort.

Runcok – Untidy but Talented

• Mullins/Paul Townend combination demands respect.
• Won at Tipperary but his fencing still looks novicey (Roscommon fall, mistakes at Galway).
• Rated 5lb inferior over hurdles to King Of Kingsfield and hasn’t shown same upward curve.
• Will need a clean round to pose a serious threat.

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Main Dangers / Outsiders

The Dara Man – Regressive

• Course winner (over hurdles) and three chase wins, but best form was 12 months ago.
• Well held in handicaps this year, looks on the downgrade.
• Has ground/trip suitability but little chance against the Elliott/Mullins pair.

Saint Peregrine – Exposed

• Only fair at best over hurdles, form miles below required level.
• One chase run (fourth, beaten 14L) suggests limited ability.
• Simply outclassed.

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Runner Scores (Suitability & Chance)

• King Of Kingsfield – 9/10: Proven class, progressive chaser, major chance.
• Runcok – 7/10: Talented but vulnerable to mistakes.
• The Dara Man – 4/10: Past his peak, place chance at best.
• Saint Peregrine – 2/10: Well below required standard.

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Private Tissue Odds

• King Of Kingsfield – 4/6
• Runcok – 6/4
• The Dara Man – 16/1
• Saint Peregrine – 50/1

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Summary

This is effectively a match between King Of Kingsfield and Runcok.

• King Of Kingsfield looked professional and progressive at Galway and rates the likelier winner.
• Runcok has the engine but his fencing remains suspect – hard to trust at short odds.
• The other two are playing for scraps.

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Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

• Win bet: King Of Kingsfield – progressive profile, Galway form is strongest on show.
• Without fav / place saver: Runcok – only danger if he puts in a clean round.