Pace & Draw:
Bellewstown’s tight turns and uphill finish put a premium on track position. Likely pace from Curious Bride and possibly Walking On Glass (with blinkers for the first time). Not a tearaway gallop, more an even-to-muddling tempo. Inside draws handy but less critical than over shorter trips.

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Strongest Contenders

• Light Up The Dark (Joseph O’Brien, 4yo, 12-1 OR 82) – Progressive mare who won her maiden well and almost landed a hot Galway handicap over this trip. Up 4lb but shaping like there’s more to come; big chance if stamina holds in yielding ground. (Progressive)
• Zanahiyr (Gordon Elliott, 8yo, 11-9 OR 76) – Smart dual-purpose horse, won a Galway chase last time after a respectable Killarney Flat run. Well-handicapped on old Flat form and classy enough to defy weight. (Proven class, but bounce possible)
• Messerschmitt (Noel Meade, 4yo, 11-13 OR 80) – Only Flat win came as a juvenile, but showed strong form over hurdles (third in a big Galway handicap). If that spark transfers back to the Flat, he’s dangerous. (Promising crossover angle)

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Main Dangers / Interesting Outsiders

• Walking On Glass (Padraig Roche, 10yo, 10-13 OR 66) – Won this race last year off the same mark. Blinkers go on today, suggesting connections want a sharper effort. Has to prove recent Flat form but can’t be ruled out. (Course specialist)
• Takarengo (James Barcoe, 9yo, 10-9 OR 62) – Only 4 wins from 74 starts, but rarely runs a bad one at this level. Close second at Tramore last time and handles 2m trips well. (Solid place angle)
• Baltic Bird (William Durkan, 6yo, 12-2 OR 83) – Winner under all codes, but badly out of form lately. Ran well in this race last year (4th off 3lb higher). Needs revival, but not entirely dismissed.

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Runners – Suitability Scores

• Light Up The Dark – 8.5/10 – Unexposed, improving, handles trip/ground, well-fancied.
• Zanahiyr – 8/10 – Class act, fit from chasing, but top weight angle may blunt finish.
• Messerschmitt – 7.5/10 – Hurdles form strong; needs to prove Flat revival.
• Walking On Glass – 7/10 – Last year’s winner, headgear may spark revival.
• Takarengo – 6.5/10 – Consistent, more likely place than win.
• Baltic Bird – 6/10 – Capable but recent runs uninspiring.
• Arch Enemy – 5.5/10 – Course winner, out of form, needs revival.
• Curious Bride – 5/10 – Leopardstown win showed ability, but regressive since.
• Molly Hall – 4.5/10 – Blew marks with early-season wins, recent runs poor.

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Private Tissue (my odds)

• Light Up The Dark – 2/1
• Zanahiyr – 11/4
• Messerschmitt – 4/1
• Walking On Glass – 7/1
• Takarengo – 8/1
• Baltic Bird – 12/1
• Arch Enemy – 14/1
• Curious Bride – 16/1
• Molly Hall – 25/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks set up for a progressive type against exposed handicappers. Light Up The Dark is the most upwardly mobile, and despite the weight, she appeals strongly. Zanahiyr brings class and chase-fitness but may be vulnerable under 11-9 in a tactical race. Messerschmitt is the dark horse if his Galway hurdles run translates.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Light Up The Dark (progressive profile, setup looks ideal)
• Each-way saver – Walking On Glass (last year’s winner, first-time blinkers, lively outsider)