Race Shape & Draw Angles:
Only eight go to post (with Startled Lady a non-runner). Lingfield’s 7f can be sharp, favouring those that can hold a handy position. Likely pace comes from Onwardupward (who made the running last time) and possibly Sovereign Bright if reverting to positive tactics. Galileo Charm and Lyra Lea both have settling speed and should sit just behind the leaders. Low draws generally help, but not as crucial here with a small field.

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Strongest Contenders

• Galileo Charm (Marco Botti / Robert Havlin) – Encouraging Kempton debut (2nd of 12), briefly hit the front and stuck on. Pedigree suggests she’ll progress, and her RPR (67) sets a solid standard for this Band D maiden. Proven on Polytrack and entitled to improve. Progressive profile.
• Lyra Lea (Rod Millman / Lewis Edmunds) – Placed on all three starts, including AW. Honest filly, but her ceiling may already be showing (best RPR 66). She’s consistent, so another place finish looks likely. Proven but possibly exposed.
• Sovereign Bright (Charlie Johnston / Jack Mitchell) – Her Doncaster 2nd (RPR 75) is the single best piece of form here. However, her AW runs have been disappointing (RPRs in the 50s). A question of which version turns up. Risky but dangerous.
• Onwardupward (Lemos De Souza / Frederick Larson) – Ran with credit when 5th in same Kempton race as Galileo Charm, losing a shoe that day. If she improves fitness-wise and benefits from a smoother run, she could close the gap. Likely improver.

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Main Dangers & Interesting Outsiders

• Barbuda Bay (Roger Teal / Rossa Ryan) – Nicely bred by Starman, stable capable of popping up with debut winners. Yard just struck with its first 2yo this month. Could be better than bare pedigree rating implies. Dark horse debutante.
• Aunt Em (James Fanshawe / George Wood) – From a family of useful 6-7f winners. Fanshawe yet to fire with juveniles this season, but market support would be telling. Market watch advised.
• Make Her Believe (Alice Haynes / Kieran O’Neill) – Yard 0-16 with juveniles this month, but has stamina-rich pedigree. May need further and experience. Likely one for later.
• Lady Milton (Jonathan Portman / Rob Hornby) – Beaten 10l on debut at Newbury. Up in trip, AW switch, but needs a big step forward. Unlikely.

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Runner Scores (Suitability /10)

• Galileo Charm – 8/10 (progressive, solid debut, should improve again)
• Sovereign Bright – 7/10 (best raw form but unreliable, AW doubts)
• Lyra Lea – 7/10 (consistent placer, limited scope)
• Onwardupward – 7/10 (could reverse Kempton form, interesting improver)
• Barbuda Bay – 6/10 (newcomer, positive signs but untested)
• Aunt Em – 5/10 (pedigree okay, yard cold with 2yos, watch market)
• Make Her Believe – 4/10 (needs more time/trip)
• Lady Milton – 3/10 (exposed as limited so far)

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Private Tissue (my odds)

• Galileo Charm 2/1
• Sovereign Bright 3/1
• Onwardupward 4/1
• Lyra Lea 4/1
• Barbuda Bay 8/1
• Aunt Em 12/1
• Make Her Believe 20/1
• Lady Milton 33/1

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Summary

This looks a straightforward Band D maiden. Galileo Charm sets the benchmark with her Kempton second and should progress again. Onwardupward is the most likely to improve enough to trouble her, especially if sharper after losing a shoe last time. Lyra Lea brings solid if exposed form, while Sovereign Bright is the class angle if reproducing her Doncaster effort, though she’s been inconsistent. Barbuda Bay is the most interesting debutante.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Galileo Charm (progressive profile, proven Polytrack ability).
• Each-way saver – Onwardupward (should get a cleaner run, potential improver).
• Keep an eye on market moves for Barbuda Bay and Aunt Em – either could be primed for a bold debut.