Going: Yielding | Class: Handicap | Field: 9 runners | Draw Bias: Bellewstown 5f can suit front-runners drawn middle-to-low.

Pace Angle:
Plenty of speed on. Escaping Thejungle (front-runner, C&D specialist) and Brigid’s Cloak both like to go forward, with Skillman Ave and Fair Taxes also pacey. Strong gallop very likely, setting this up for anything finishing late if able to handle track’s sharpness.

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Strongest Contenders

Brigid’s Cloak (Draw 7, Ben Coen – J P Murtagh) – Proven, progressive earlier, dropping in class.
Has been campaigned in stronger races (Curragh 17k/22k fields). Last time travelled well before fading; now down in grade with blinkers back on. Carries top weight but her 89 RPR at the Curragh shows ability. Sharp 5f not proven but plenty of speed. Major chance if race doesn’t collapse late.

Rappell (Draw 5, D B McMonagle – P W Flynn) – Consistent, holds-up risk.
Placed three times in decent Curragh handicaps this summer. Ran with credit in stronger races, but this sharp track may catch him out – he’s best at 6f. If pace collapses, he’s the one running on.

Escaping Thejungle (Draw 4, Colin Keane – E D Delany) – C&D specialist, bounce-back angle.
Both wins here over 5f making all, including off 72. Seasonal runs were pipe-openers. Trainer targets this meeting and Keane booked – clear intent. If she gets an easy lead, very dangerous.

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Main Dangers

Fair Taxes (Draw 9, Shane Foley – Ross O’Sullivan) – Capable, but prefers stiffer test.
Won at Navan over 5f, usually better at stiffer tracks. Still, dropping in grade and back to his winning mark. Wide draw not ideal for his style.

Aurora Nova (Draw 4, Wesley Joyce – A McNamara) – Inconsistent.
Three wins this year including twice over C&D. Recent runs poor but only 6lb above latest win. If bouncing back, she’s a player.

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Interesting Outsiders

Skillman Ave (Draw 1, Gary Carroll – Gavin Cromwell) – Unexposed, possible bounce-back.
Won at Tipperary 5f in July, then second at Navan 6f. Last run poor in a hotter Curragh race. Draw 1 a positive for her prominent style. Could surprise at a price.

Velvet Skies (Draw 8, T Casey – M Mulvany) – Trip question mark.
Placed in big Curragh handicaps (2nd of 27 over 6f). This sharp 5f may be on the short side but strong pace helps. If fit off break, could run on.

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Runner Scores

• Brigid’s Cloak – 8/10 (drop in grade, speed filly, but stamina at sharp 5f a slight query)
• Rappell – 7.5/10 (consistent, class edge, but sharper test a worry)
• Escaping Thejungle – 7.5/10 (C&D specialist, big jockey booking, fitness angle)
• Fair Taxes – 7/10 (capable, but track/pace scenario not ideal)
• Aurora Nova – 6.5/10 (C&D form but regressive)
• Skillman Ave – 6.5/10 (unexposed, well drawn, needs bounce-back)
• Velvet Skies – 6/10 (best over further, could nick place if collapse late)
• Best Suggestion – 5/10 (maiden promise but this sharp 5f looks wrong)
• Penny Mountain – 4/10 (maiden, unproven at trip, off since May)

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Private Tissue Odds (My book)

• Brigid’s Cloak 3/1
• Rappell 7/2
• Escaping Thejungle 7/2
• Fair Taxes 6/1
• Skillman Ave 8/1
• Aurora Nova 10/1
• Velvet Skies 12/1
• Best Suggestion 16/1
• Penny Mountain 25/1

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Summary

Plenty of pace is likely. Brigid’s Cloak has been contesting stronger races and drops in grade with headgear change – looks primed. Escaping Thejungle is a big danger back at her favoured C&D with Colin Keane on board. If they go too hard, Rappell will be finishing best of all.

Smart Play

• Win bet: Brigid’s Cloak (class drop, strong recent form)
• Each-way saver: Escaping Thejungle (C&D specialist, local angle)
• Forecast angle: Brigid’s Cloak / Rappell if pace collapses