Race Shape & Draw

• Pace looks modest: few natural front-runners, so tactical positioning may be key.
• Stamina will be tested given the trip and slightly testing ground.
• Low-to-middle draws fine here; no major bias historically.

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Main Contenders

Tswalu (Joseph O’Brien / D.B. McMonagle) – Proven / Consistent

• Rated 84, sets the standard on form.
• Runner-up in 4 of 5 maidens; last time wandered under pressure at Cork but was narrowly denied.
• Big chance, but vulnerable to an improver.

Stellar Quality (Mrs John Harrington / S. Foley) – Progressive / Promising

• Ran green but kept on nicely at Killarney (11½f, soft).
• That form boosted with the runner-up winning since.
• Step up to this trip and experience should bring plenty of improvement.

Gifted (Aidan O’Brien / W. Lordan) – Promising

• Wootton Bassett filly from a strong family (dam won the Ribblesdale).
• Encouraging C&D debut (4th behind Sea Coral), finishing just behind Radar Ahead.
• Likely to step forward and has Group entries later.

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Dangers & Outsiders

• Radar Ahead – consistent type, handles this track, but more exposed and might lack the class of the big three.
• Likewhatyousee – C&D debut run was fair; ignore soft-ground flop last time, could sneak into places.
• Carmel’s Phoenix – encouraging late progress on debut (1m1f Curragh), pedigree suggests stamina; outsider with place claims.
• Alexa Next / Ballerina Boxer / Rapid Sequence / Sayidah New Bay – either outclassed, stamina doubts, or too regressive.

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Runner Scores (Suitability)

• Tswalu – 9/10 (Sets the standard, but vulnerable to improver)
• Stellar Quality – 8.5/10 (Likely improver, strong danger)
• Gifted – 8/10 (Well-bred, can progress, big player)
• Radar Ahead – 6.5/10 (Solid, but limited scope)
• Likewhatyousee – 6/10 (Ground excuse last time, place chance)
• Carmel’s Phoenix – 6/10 (Interesting improver, stamina to suit)
• Alexa Next – 4/10 (Needs huge step up)
• Ballerina Boxer – 3/10 (Trip too sharp, hurdler’s profile)
• Sayidah New Bay – 3/10 (Poor debut, hard to fancy)
• Rapid Sequence – 1/10 (No evidence of ability)

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Private Tissue (Fair Odds)

• Tswalu 2/1
• Stellar Quality 5/2
• Gifted 3/1
• Radar Ahead 10/1
• Likewhatyousee 12/1
• Carmel’s Phoenix 14/1
• Others 25/1+

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Summary

This revolves around whether the exposed but consistent Tswalu can finally break through, or whether the classier improvers will progress past her. Stellar Quality is open to major improvement after a promising debut, while Gifted has the pedigree and trainer profile to make a big leap forward second time.

Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

• Win bet: Stellar Quality – form boosted, looks the one to improve past Tswalu.
• Saver: Gifted – pedigree and Ballydoyle angle suggest better to come.
• Each-way outsider: Carmel’s Phoenix – strong-finishing debut, could relish this trip and sneak a place at a price.