Race shape & pace:
Plenty of inexperienced types, likely a solidly run 5f with both pace-forcers and keen debutants. Navan’s stiff finish means early speed can fold late, suiting anything finishing off. Low draws can sometimes help, but on good ground it plays fair if pace is even.

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Strongest Contenders

Namiid (JP Murtagh) – Progressive

• Consistent maiden form (RPR 80–90).
• Third in a Curragh Listed (RPR 90), confirming he’s up to a maiden of this type.
• Notebook: “came home well” at Curragh; profile suggests he’s learning and improving with racing.
• Draw 1 gives options, can track pace and finish off strongly.
  Score: 9/10 – clear standard setter.

Raphello (JPOB) – Progressive

• Consistently 77–83 RPR, solid second at Sligo and third in a Curragh nursery.
• Notebook: described as “winner in waiting” and mark pushed up.
• Pedigree (brother to Flotus) screams sprint ability, stiff 5f should suit.
  Score: 8/10 – main danger if handling track finish.

Amiata (Ger Lyons) – Promising

• Expensive Dark Angel, placed on debut, then regressed slightly.
• Notebook: speed evident, but folded tamely with blinkers at Cork.
• Best run still an RPR 88 at Naas.
• Draw 10 not ideal if trapped wide, but big player if rediscovering debut promise.
  Score: 7/10 – chance if settling better.

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Main Dangers

Zarvali (JP Murtagh) – Improving

• Two runs, big step up last time (RPR 69).
• Pedigree strongly 5f-based (half-brother to Zarzyni).
• Still raw, but going the right way.
  Score: 6.5/10 – could run into a place.

Unionville (Mrs Harrington)

• Midfield debut at Curragh (RPR 50).
• From a speed family, Havana Grey progeny often improve sharply from debut.
  Score: 6/10 – possible improver.

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Outsiders / Longshots

• Monvoe (best RPR 60, exposed, stamina pedigree – 3/10).
• Another Nice’day (only run poor – 3/10).
• Changing Direction (beaten a long way – 2/10).
• Countertop (first run – stamina pedigree, more for next year – 3/10).
• Mr Tony / Sleeper Hunter / Strike Zone (debutants with speed sires, worth monitoring for market moves, but hard to recommend without clues).

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Runner Scores

• Namiid – 9/10 (proven Listed form, progressive).
• Raphello – 8/10 (solid maidens, winner in waiting).
• Amiata – 7/10 (needs to bounce back, but ability there).
• Zarvali – 6.5/10 (pedigree matches, improving).
• Unionville – 6/10 (improver likely).
• Monvoe – 3/10
• Another Nice’day – 3/10
• Changing Direction – 2/10
• Countertop – 3/10
• Mr Tony – 4/10 (unfancied debut, but pedigree okay).
• Sleeper Hunter – 3/10
• Strike Zone – 4/10 (expensive yearling, debut watch).

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Private Tissue (fair odds)

• Namiid 2/1
• Raphello 7/2
• Amiata 5/1
• Zarvali 10/1
• Unionville 10/1
• Mr Tony / Strike Zone 14/1
• Others 25/1+

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a good opening for Namiid, who has Listed form, is progressing steadily, and gets ideal conditions. Raphello is the main danger, his consistency and strong sprint pedigree making him a likely maiden winner soon. Amiata is best of the rest if rediscovering early promise.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Namiid (proven form and finishing effort last time).
• Saver: Raphello (winner in waiting, strong stable).
• Each-way outsider: Zarvali (unexposed and bred for 5f).