Race Shape & Draw Angles
This trip at Musselburgh often favours those who can travel kindly and quicken late rather than dour grinders. Pace on here from Trojan Sun (draw 1, usually handy) and potentially Lunar Power (draw 8, can force it). That could set up nicely for something ridden just off them. Low draws aren’t essential at this marathon trip, but Trojan Sun bagging the rail could be a tactical plus.

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Strongest Contenders

• Simple Star (OR 74, Draw 7) – Proven
  Ran a cracker here recently when just failing over 1m6f; C&D winner and last year’s runner-up in a similar Musselburgh staying handicap. Stays well, runs this track strongly, and looks primed to peak again. Reliable profile when getting decent ground.
• Trojan Sun (OR 63, Draw 1) – Progressive
  Loves Musselburgh, all turf wins here including over this very C&D. Put a line through Chester/away runs; back at his home patch he’s dangerous, especially if dictating at a steady pace. Up in class but still well handicapped on track form.
• Paper Doll (OR 74, Draw 6) – Promising
  Big improver for Tristan Davidson, genuine and consistent. Kept finding the line over middle distances, and her pedigree screams stamina. The stiffer 2m+ test could unlock more. Yard going well.

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Main Dangers

• Bashful Boy (OR 77, Draw 4) – Exposed but classy
  Ran with credit in a Glorious Goodwood marathon last time, not quite lasting home. This slightly shorter trip suits. Carries top weight but class edge makes him competitive.
• Elemental Eye (OR 62, Draw 5) – Late developer
  Just starting to put it together; Redcar win, then runner-up here last time behind Red Force One. Strong stayer in the making and only 4yo, so has scope for more.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Lunar Power (OR 69, Draw 8) – Won here over 2m recently, but career patchy and sometimes doesn’t find much. Could force pace but might be vulnerable late.
• Stand Strong (OR 59, Draw 3) – Found form this summer, stamina-building profile, but unproven beyond 1m6f. If he stays, he’s a dark horse.
• Clan Chieftain (OR 68, Draw 2) – Flattered by hurdles placing; flat form inconsistent, though new headgear produced a career best earlier this summer. Needs to prove stamina for this trip.

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Runner Scores (Suitability)

• Simple Star – 9/10 (track lover, strong stayer, peak form)
• Trojan Sun – 8/10 (C&D winner, back at favoured venue, class rise a query)
• Paper Doll – 8/10 (progressive mare, stamina to prove at 2m2f but likely)
• Bashful Boy – 7/10 (class act, but giving weight away, not unexposed)
• Elemental Eye – 7/10 (improving 4yo, slight stamina doubts)
• Lunar Power – 6/10 (recent winner, but unreliable)
• Stand Strong – 5/10 (needs to prove he stays)
• Clan Chieftain – 4/10 (doubtful stayer, inconsistent)

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Private Tissue (my odds view)

• Simple Star 3/1
• Trojan Sun 7/2
• Paper Doll 9/2
• Bashful Boy 6/1
• Elemental Eye 8/1
• Lunar Power 10/1
• Stand Strong 14/1
• Clan Chieftain 20/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a track specialist’s race, with Simple Star and Trojan Sun the standouts. Paper Doll is the unknown stamina angle who could improve again for this trip, while Bashful Boy brings class but gives weight all round.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Simple Star (proven here, primed for this race)
• Each-way saver – Trojan Sun (loves Musselburgh, strong C&D claims at likely value)
• Danger – Paper Doll (progressive mare, interesting at the trip for the first time)