Pace & Draw:
Catterick’s sharp 5f is all about early speed and track position. High numbers can sometimes be favoured if pace comes from the stands’ side, but with front-runners spread across the field, this could be run at a strong clip. Several habitual pace pushers (Jojo Rabbit, Rosenpur, Desert Champion if headgear sparks him, Hover On The Wind when ridden aggressively). Hold-up types may need luck weaving through.

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Strongest Contenders

• Lexington Blitz (3yo, OR 83, Draw 6) – Progressive
  Racing exclusively at higher levels until Musselburgh last time where he was just denied, shaping like a winner-in-waiting. Trainer Cowell excels with sprinters here. All speed, suited to fast 5f, and looks very well handicapped if he gets a tow into it. Still unexposed compared to these older campaigners.
• Hurt You Never (6yo, OR 81, Draw 7) – Proven
  Remarkably genuine mare (14 wins), in top form this summer, and not disgraced in a stronger Haydock Class 4. Wins tend to come when she finds a rhythm near the pace, but she’s edging back up to marks where she can be vulnerable. Still a danger given her consistency and course suitability.
• Rosenpur (5yo, OR 81, Draw 3) – Consistent
  Often runs well at Chester where he needs to break smartly. Creditable second two runs back, but not the strongest finisher at 5f. Drop back to a sharper Catterick could help, though his very best has been when dominating from the front.

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Main Dangers

• Hover On The Wind (5yo, OR 71, Draw 4) – Capable but quirky
  Has shown glimpses of form since joining Midgley, including a Beverley win in May. Didn’t see it out last time at Thirsk but has speed and handles fast ground. Sharp track could suit, but needs things to fall right.
• Glory Fighter (9yo, OR 70, Draw 5) – Veteran sprinter
  Still retains dash, finishing second to Hurt You Never in July. Placed over C&D in May off higher mark, and although age is catching up, he’s competitive off 70. Can be involved late if pace collapses.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Jojo Rabbit (7yo, OR 71, Draw 1) – Front-runner
  Often dangerous when allowed to dominate, and Beverley second last month showed he retains ability. Catterick’s sharp 5f could see him in the firing line a long way, but he’s inconsistent and can fold quickly.
• Angelic Bugler (3yo, OR 66, Draw 2) – Unexposed filly
  Lightly raced, best run when third at Thirsk in June (RPR 90). Looks a work in progress but receives a big weight pull from most and could be a late improver. Yard’s sprinters go well here.
• Desert Champion (3yo, OR 75, Draw 8) – Needs revival
  Won impressively in a visor earlier this year but has gone backwards since. If connections refit headgear, could bounce back, but current profile is poor.

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Runner Scores

• Lexington Blitz – 9/10 (class drop, unexposed, fast 5f ideal)
• Hurt You Never – 8/10 (ultra-reliable, but handicapper knows her)
• Rosenpur – 7/10 (consistent, but not always finishing races strongly)
• Hover On The Wind – 6.5/10 (flashes of form, but hard to trust)
• Glory Fighter – 6.5/10 (age against him, but can still compete)
• Jojo Rabbit – 6/10 (pace angle, risky for win purposes)
• Angelic Bugler – 6/10 (unexposed, could improve sharply)
• Desert Champion – 4/10 (needs revival, regressive since spring)

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Private Tissue Odds

• Lexington Blitz 5/2
• Hurt You Never 7/2
• Rosenpur 5/1
• Hover On The Wind 7/1
• Glory Fighter 8/1
• Jojo Rabbit 10/1
• Angelic Bugler 12/1
• Desert Champion 20/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This should be run at a strong pace, setting it up for something with a touch of class that can stalk and pounce. The 3yo Lexington Blitz has been competing in hotter races, looks well treated now eased in grade, and appeals as the most progressive option. Hurt You Never is always dangerous at this level but may find one too strong off her current mark. Rosenpur and Hover On The Wind have place claims if the leaders overdo it.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet – Lexington Blitz (progressive, well in at weights, strong finisher).
• Each-way Saver – Rosenpur (consistent, likely to be in the shake-up at Catterick’s sharp 5f).