Pace & Draw Angles

• Hexham is stiff and undulating, often favouring those ridden with a degree of patience, though small fields can let front-runners dictate.
• Likely pace: Malangen and possibly Getaway Frankie could go forward, with Dickens and Nottodaybobo happy to track. Hold-up sorts (King Of Cong, Gemini Man) risk being left with too much to do.

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Strongest Contenders

Dickens (104, Jennie Candlish) – Progressive since joining the yard; has won twice at Hexham (including C&D) and then followed up at Cartmel under a penalty. Still unexposed at 2m, and the 5lb claim offsets his rise. Trainer’s strike rate here is strong. Solid.

Little Soiree (102, Olly Williams) – Broke her maiden at Huntingdon in May, shaped fine in Class 4s since, and wasn’t disgraced in better company. She’s straightforward, handles most ground, and the 5lb claim helps. Still some upside in handicaps.

Nottodaybobo (101, Micky Hammond) – Ex-Gordon Elliott, showed useful Irish novice form. Ran well on stable debut (3rd at Market Rasen) and now drops into calmer waters with Brian Hughes up. Stays further, so stiff Hexham 2m could suit.

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Main Dangers

Getaway Frankie (101, Tristan Davidson) – Shock Hexham novice winner (40/1) but pulled up either side of that. If that win was genuine, she’s dangerous; if not, she’s opposable. Local yard is shrewd, worth a market check.

Malangen (90, Lisa Harrison) – Hardy old handicapper, front-running type with 11 career wins, many here. Won a weak Class 5 in July but struggled since up in grade. He’ll give his running, but Hexham’s climb may expose him late. Place chance if unharried.

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Interesting Outsiders

King Of Cong (106, Sam England) – Lightly raced over hurdles, bolted up on handicap debut in Ireland but has been largely chasing since. Back to hurdles here, unexposed in this sphere, but attitude questionable (hung/jumped left). Watching brief unless market speaks.

Gemini Man (93, Iain Jardine) – Strong recent Flat form (winner and placed at Hamilton/Ayr) and ran well over hurdles earlier this summer. Bit of a tricky character but stamina assured, and if adapting back to timber, he could sneak into the frame.

Nathan Wells (93, Andrew Hamilton) – Better over fences lately, versatile trip-wise, but still looking for the right level. Could outrun odds if bouncing back from a poor run at Perth.

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Runner Scores (Suitability)

• Dickens – 8.5/10 (progressive, C&D proven, well placed)
• Little Soiree – 7.5/10 (likeable mare, consistent, but exposed)
• Nottodaybobo – 7.5/10 (well treated, Hughes up, but quirky)
• Getaway Frankie – 6.5/10 (one-hit wonder? risky)
• Malangen – 6/10 (battle-hardened, but vulnerable in Class 4)
• King Of Cong – 6/10 (well treated on hurdles debut win, but unreliable)
• Gemini Man – 6.5/10 (fit from Flat, but attitude worries)
• Nathan Wells – 5.5/10 (recent chasing mark inflated, less appeal back here)

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Private Tissue (my odds)

• Dickens – 5/2
• Nottodaybobo – 7/2
• Little Soiree – 9/2
• Getaway Frankie – 7/1
• Gemini Man – 10/1
• Malangen – 12/1
• King Of Cong – 14/1
• Nathan Wells – 16/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks set up for a progressive type rather than a hardened handicapper. Dickens is thriving since switching yards and has strong course form, making him the one to beat. Nottodaybobo is feared most now back in calmer waters with Brian Hughes aboard. Little Soiree is a consistent mare who shouldn’t be far away.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Dickens
• Saver EW: Nottodaybobo (if 7/2+ available, strong place chance)
• Dark horse: Gemini Man (fit from Flat, could nick a place if jumping holds).