Pace & Draw: Bellewstown’s tight track and short run-in put a premium on position. Likely pace from Shadow Paddy, Oh So Charming, and possibly Mercury Mission. A well-placed mid-div ride should be ideal.

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Strongest Contenders

• Timeless Treaty (OR 126, Elliott) – Lightly raced novice, 2-3 over hurdles, best RPR 132. Up in trip but pedigree (Kayf Tara dam line) suggests 2m4f suits. Could improve further but tackling seasoned handicappers early.
• Stuntman Steve (OR 123, Cromwell) – Consistent handicapper, best form over 2m but strong-finishing 2nd at Bellewstown last time suggests he stays this trip. Yard in excellent form.
• Birmingham Alabama (OR 114, Delany) – Mare with a strong finish, Galway run suggests another win is close. Handles this trip, mark workable, and gets her ground.
• Mercury Mission (OR 114, Rothwell) – Won at Wexford latest, 3-time hurdle winner, 2 of them over this C&D. Up in weights but thrives on racing and has a 7lb claimer.

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Main Dangers

• Moonovercloon (OR 123, M J Smith) – Better known as a chaser, but can be competitive at this trip. Recent form patchy and looks regressive, but back to hurdles could spark revival.
• Oh So Charming (OR 112, Queally) – Consistent on good ground, Clonmel win and close Sligo 2nd. Needs a career-best but shaping like further suits.
• Killinure Lass (OR 105, Dempsey) – Game mare, recent Galway 4th and Tramore chase win show she retains form. Stays further, so stamina assured if this is run strongly.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Jacovec Cavern (OR 114, Hennessy) – Threw away a Cork handicap when falling at the last. If reproducing that run, he’s well treated, but consistency questionable.
• Leave In Secret (OR 107, Gibney) – Maiden hurdle winner last time, unexposed at the trip, still learning. Could step forward from 123 RPR.
• Hey Babbs (OR 100, McLoughlin) – Won well at Wexford two starts back, excuses last time. Light weight and progressive mare, could outrun odds.

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Suitability Scores

• Timeless Treaty – 8/10 (progressive, unexposed, class angle)
• Stuntman Steve – 8/10 (consistent, trip question but pace likely helps)
• Birmingham Alabama – 7.5/10 (mare in good heart, well treated)
• Mercury Mission – 7.5/10 (course form, thriving, but up in weights)
• Moonovercloon – 6.5/10 (classy at best, regressive recent form)
• Oh So Charming – 6.5/10 (consistent, stamina a plus, needs more)
• Killinure Lass – 6.5/10 (game mare, stays further, place chance)
• Jacovec Cavern – 6/10 (talented but unreliable)
• Leave In Secret – 6.5/10 (potential improver, handicap debutant)
• Shadow Paddy – 6/10 (progressive but raised again, higher class test)
• Montecam – 6/10 (UK recruit, not fully proven at trip, needs to settle)
• Charlie Luciano – 5.5/10 (chasing flop, hurdles revival possible but risky)
• Mister Beeton – 5.5/10 (well treated at best, but inconsistent)
• Hey Babbs – 6.5/10 (lightweight, recent win, could sneak into places)

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Private Tissue (my odds view)

• Timeless Treaty 4/1
• Stuntman Steve 5/1
• Birmingham Alabama 6/1
• Mercury Mission 6/1
• Moonovercloon 10/1
• Oh So Charming 11/1
• Killinure Lass 12/1
• Leave In Secret 12/1
• Jacovec Cavern 14/1
• Hey Babbs 14/1
• Shadow Paddy 16/1
• Montecam 20/1
• Charlie Luciano 20/1
• Mister Beeton 25/1

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Summary

This looks a competitive staying handicap hurdle with a blend of seasoned handicappers and lightly raced improvers. Pace should be honest, favouring those ridden just off the leaders.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Timeless Treaty (progressive Elliott novice, unexposed at trip, could be a “go day” with 7lb claimer).
• Each-way saver – Birmingham Alabama (likeable mare, mark workable, finishing effort strong at Galway).
• Alternative outsider – Hey Babbs (bottom weight, recent Wexford win suggests she’s improving).