(Class 4, 6f, 2yo fillies, GBB/IRE incentive)

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Race Setup & Pace Shape

• Maiden fillies’ event, mostly newcomers with pedigrees suggesting a range of stamina from sharp 6f speed to mile+ types.
• Pace looks steady rather than strong: only American Flight and Reality Queen have shown early speed.
• Newbury 6f tends to suit those who can travel strongly then quicken late. Middle to high draws slightly favoured in bigger fields, though here tactical position matters more.

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Leading Contenders

• Heated Moment (O. Sangster / T. Whelan) – Proven
  • Showed promise on debut here over 7f (RPR 76), travelled well before fading late. Drop to 6f looks a plus.
  • Strong pedigree (Too Darn Hot x Galileo mare) and expected to improve.
  • Notebook: “should settle better with experience.”
• Imperial Ballet (A. Balding / O. Murphy) – Promising
  • By Blue Point, dam side has miler stamina but siblings showed 2yo speed (Positive rated 112 as a juvenile).
  • Balding/O Murphy combo strong at Newbury. Big stable expectations likely.
• Khafar (C. Hills / J. Crowley) – Promising
  • By Dubawi out of a Ghanaati family mare, very strong pedigree.
  • Yard not prolific with first-timers but often improves second run. Could be a long-term type but strong breeding makes her notable.
• Bintola (H. Charlton / W. Buick) – Promising
  • 625,000gns yearling, sister to 100+ RPR winners, dam was a top 2yo sprinter.
  • Sea The Stars influence suggests may need further, but Buick booked and the pedigree points to quality. Market check crucial.

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Main Dangers

• Caraway (Haggas/Marquand) – US-sired (Gun Runner) filly out of a stout mare; may want further but Haggas’ debutants often well-prepared.
• Glow (Hannon/Levey) – Pinatubo filly from a good family; Hannon yard excels with juveniles here, could be sharper than some of the more stamina-laden pedigrees.
• Sunday Girl (E. Walker/Shoemark) – Frankel filly out of a Group-placed sprinter, dam a half to July Cup winner Starman. Pedigree screams 6–7f class, but Walker’s usually improve for debut.

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Others

• American Flight – Twice faded late (64 RPR ceiling). Notebook suggests “drop to 5f” so 6f here still looks a stretch.
• Got The Booty / Running Hot / Reality Queen – Pedigrees okay but RPRs (57) or sales tags suggest they may be depth horses today rather than principals.

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Runner Scores (Suitability /10)

• Heated Moment – 8/10 (proven promise, trip looks right)
• Imperial Ballet – 7.5/10 (pedigree/top team, debut watch)
• Khafar – 7/10 (blue blood, but debut type)
• Bintola – 7/10 (expensive, Buick up, may need further)
• Glow – 6.5/10 (Hannon factor, well-bred)
• Caraway – 6.5/10 (stable strong, sire influence stamina-heavy)
• Sunday Girl – 6.5/10 (classy family, but Walker debutants need run)
• American Flight – 5.5/10 (speedy pedigree but hasn’t finished races out)
• Got The Booty – 5/10 (yard form weak, stamina bias in pedigree)
• Running Hot – 5/10 (modest pedigree, Cox yard does better with sharp types)
• Reality Queen – 4.5/10 (well beaten on debut, needs big step forward)

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Private Tissue (Approximate Odds)

• Heated Moment 3/1
• Imperial Ballet 4/1
• Bintola 9/2
• Khafar 5/1
• Glow 7/1
• Caraway 8/1
• Sunday Girl 8/1
• American Flight 16/1
• Got The Booty / Running Hot 20/1
• Reality Queen 33/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a clash between the proven debut promise (Heated Moment) and several well-bred newcomers from top yards. Imperial Ballet, Bintola, and Khafar all have big pedigrees and could be anything. Glow and Sunday Girl are interesting Hannon/Walker types with the right families. American Flight has ability but keeps finishing weakly, suggesting 5f may be her trip.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet – Heated Moment (already shown ability, drop to 6f ideal).
• Saver – Imperial Ballet (pedigree points to early class, strong stable combo).
• Watch Market Closely for Khafar and Bintola – any strength would be significant for fillies from these bloodlines.