Pace & Draw:
Southwell’s 7f Tapeta often rewards those able to travel strongly just off the speed. Wide draws (10+) can be tricky unless breaking sharply. Expect an honest to strong pace with front-runners like Benacre and Brazilian Rose likely to press on, setting it up for strong finishers.

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Strongest Contenders

Noodle Mission – 9/10 (Draw 10, OR 83, Saffie Osborne)
Proven AW performer, a winner over this C&D last August off 4lb higher. Strong finisher who ran on well for 2nd here last month. Better on AW than turf and looks primed to strike again with conditions in his favour.

Philanthropist – 8/10 (Draw 2, OR 84, Daniel Muscutt)
Progressive 3yo who won here in April and ran well in defeat last time (slightly hampered). Handles Tapeta well and still open to improvement for a top yard. Drawn well to sit handy and pounce late.

Yaaser – 8/10 (Draw 13, OR 79, Paul Mulrennan)
Reliable, consistent handicapper who finishes strongly when things fall right. Draw is a concern but has been running big races in better company. Could easily swoop late if the race collapses.

Best Rate – 7.5/10 (Draw 7, OR 83, Joe Leavy)
Unexposed 3yo from Hannon. Still learning but unlucky not to win at York in May. Effective on AW and has the profile of one who could improve past his mark. Market vibes key.

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Main Dangers

Tolstoy – 7/10 (Draw 14, OR 86, 7lb claimer up)
Tough old handicapper who has form at this track. Wide draw isn’t ideal but a capable apprentice offsets weight. More exposed than others but competitive on best AW runs.

Tennessee Gold – 7/10 (Draw 8, OR 85, P J McDonald)
Keen-going type who ran his best race of the year at Kempton last time. Two-time course winner and back on AW looks a positive move. Should be competitive if settling.

Catalyse – 6.5/10 (Draw 4, OR 83, Richard Fahey)
Lightly raced 3yo, expensive breeze-up buy, still unexposed. Better than recent turf form and shaped with promise on debut at this trip. Potential improver, though a bit to prove.

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Interesting Outsiders

Benacre – 6.5/10 (Draw 1, OR 75, Joe Fanning)
Won at Newcastle in May, effective on AW, but inconsistent. From stall 1, may get the lead and be hard to pass if dictating.

Brazilian Rose – 6/10 (Draw 3, OR 73, David Allan)
Game filly who stays 7f, loves Tapeta. Three wins at Newcastle, consistent in this grade. Running off a winnable mark if bouncing back.

Bajan Bandit – 6/10 (Draw 9, OR 72, Clifford Lee)
Capable on AW, often thereabouts but struggles to get his head in front. Could sneak into places at a price.

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Runner Suitability Scores

• Noodle Mission – 9/10 (AW specialist, perfect setup)
• Philanthropist – 8/10 (progressive, good draw)
• Yaaser – 8/10 (consistent closer, needs luck)
• Best Rate – 7.5/10 (unexposed 3yo, market check)
• Tolstoy – 7/10 (exposed but solid AW record)
• Tennessee Gold – 7/10 (back to AW, best track form)
• Catalyse – 6.5/10 (potential but unproven)
• Benacre – 6.5/10 (could get an easy lead)
• Brazilian Rose – 6/10 (course form, needs a revival)
• Bajan Bandit – 6/10 (place chance only)
• Almarada Prince – 5.5/10 (better at sprint trips)
• Thurso – 5/10 (improving but stamina question)
• Kosometsuke – 5/10 (still learning, but up in class)
• Berry Clever – 4.5/10 (out of depth at this level)

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Private Tissue (Guide Odds)

• Noodle Mission – 3/1
• Philanthropist – 4/1
• Yaaser – 11/2
• Best Rate – 7/1
• Tennessee Gold – 8/1
• Tolstoy – 10/1
• Catalyse – 12/1
• Benacre – 12/1
• Brazilian Rose – 14/1
• Bajan Bandit – 14/1
• Others – 20/1+

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a strongly run 7f with pace likely from Benacre and Brazilian Rose, setting things up for a closer. Noodle Mission has the most convincing AW credentials and is handicapped to strike again, while Philanthropist is the unexposed improver with a good draw. Yaaser remains in fine heart and could swoop late if avoiding traffic.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet – Noodle Mission (back to ideal C&D, strong finisher, well in)
• Each-Way Saver – Philanthropist (progressive 3yo, drawn well, untapped potential)

Market check advised for Best Rate (still improving 3yo) and Tennessee Gold (AW return).