Race Setup & Pace:
Plenty of seasoned handicappers with AW form mixed in with progressive younger horses. Southwell’s Tapeta is fair but pace can hold up well if they go steady. Likely leaders include Northcliff (low draw, visor on) and Miss Hathaway, while hold-up specialists like Rohaan and Fantasy Master will need a strong pace. Draw: historically middle-to-low is fine over 6f here, high draws less ideal if pace collapses.

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Strongest Contenders

• Ormolulu (82, Draw 8) – Proven around here (4-time C&D winner), reliable in big York handicaps, and unlucky in running more than once this season. Handles Southwell well and is still holding form. Progressive within this grade.
• Rohaan (82, Draw 11) – Not the force of old but dangerously well-handicapped (peak OR 116). Has shaped well on AW this year, notably when 2nd to Ormolulu here. If getting the breaks, he’s a player.
• Aberama Gold (83, Draw 12) – A touch higher in the weights but two wins this summer (York & Ayr) show the old spark remains. Handles any ground/surface, but wide draw and extra weight may test him.
• City Captain (68, Draw 10) – Lightly raced 3yo improver, three wins from last four. Up in class but clearly progressive. Pedigree suggests AW shouldn’t be an issue.

Main Dangers

• Northcliff (80, Draw 1) – In form this spring, best on turf but has AW placed form. From stall 1, likely to attack early, visor keeps him sharp. Question is whether AW consistency holds.
• Bosh (81, Draw 4) – Well-treated and shaped with promise this season (Chester near miss). Drop to Class 4 is a positive.
• Havana Rum (74, Draw 14) – Got confidence back with Ripon win. Wide draw is a blow but strong pace could bring him late into it.

Interesting Outsiders

• Fierce (77, Draw 7) – In-and-out but bolted up at Wolves latest. Could still be improving, but risky type.
• Fantasy Master (74, Draw 3) – AW scorer, more effective over 5f but can finish strongly if pace collapses.
• True Promise (73, Draw 9) – Consistent sort, multiple places on AW. Just below this level but could sneak into the frame if things fall right.

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Runner Scores (Suitability /10)

• Aberama Gold – 7/10 (classy but wide draw a negative)
• Ormolulu – 9/10 (track proven, consistent, big chance)
• Rohaan – 8/10 (well-handicapped, late charge needs luck)
• Another Investment – 5/10 (rare winner, more place type)
• Bosh – 7/10 (drop in class, well treated)
• Northcliff – 7/10 (low draw, pace angle, turf bias a worry)
• Fierce – 6/10 (inconsistent but live outsider)
• Fantasy Master – 6/10 (finisher, wants 5f ideally)
• Havana Rum – 7/10 (in form but poor draw)
• True Promise – 6/10 (consistent, not especially well-in)
• Miss Hathaway – 5/10 (3yo filly, progressive but may be outgunned)
• Dapper Valley – 4/10 (regressive, disappointing since last win)
• Sovereign Knight – 5/10 (strong finisher, but inconsistent)
• City Captain – 8/10 (progressive 3yo, unexposed at this level)

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Private Tissue Odds

• Ormolulu 7/2
• Rohaan 5/1
• City Captain 6/1
• Aberama Gold 13/2
• Bosh 8/1
• Northcliff 9/1
• Havana Rum 10/1
• Fierce 14/1
• Fantasy Master 16/1
• True Promise 16/1
• Miss Hathaway 20/1
• Sovereign Knight 20/1
• Another Investment 25/1
• Dapper Valley 33/1

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Summary & Smart Play

Plenty of exposed handicappers but the race sets up for a mix of proven C&D performers and one or two unexposed types.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Ormolulu – rock-solid Southwell record, unlucky in recent York handicaps, ideal setup.
• Each-Way Saver: City Captain – progressive 3yo, still improving, and could outclass older handicappers if handling Tapeta.
• Rohaan the big danger if the gaps appear.