Pace & Draw Angles:
Plenty of forward-goers here (Jimmy Speaking, Gloriously Sassy, On The River), so a strong, even pace looks likely. That sets it up for something with a finishing kick. The Southwell Tapeta mile can favour those ridden handy, but too much pace could bring in closers. Inside draws generally an advantage, but not decisive at 1m.

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Strongest Contenders

• Indalo (Roger Varian, 4yo, OR 86, Draw 10) – Progressive grey, won well at Sandown in July and backed it up with a good 4th in a strong Goodwood Class 3. Well suited by a strong-run mile, lightly raced, and has scope for further progress. Unexposed on AW but pedigree suggests he’ll handle it.
• Transparent (Tom Ward, 3yo, OR 86, Draw 2) – Solid handicap form this summer, including a close 3rd here over C&D in July. Still lightly raced, improving profile, and has tactical speed from stall 2. Gets handy weight-for-age allowance.
• Cephalus (Gary & Josh Moore, 6yo, OR 81, Draw 11) – A prolific AW winner (10 career wins, 3x Southwell), best caught in late summer/autumn. Blinkers back on. Forgive recent runs on turf/hurdles, return to AW at right time of year makes him interesting.

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Main Dangers

• Legal Reform (Michael Herrington, 8yo, OR 88, Draw 1) – A Southwell specialist (5 wins), thriving earlier this year. Strong RPRs here (97 tops). Draw 1 ideal, though career-high marks now stretch him. Hard to rule out given track bias.
• Blue Prince (David Evans, 4yo, OR 86, Draw 8) – Consistent at this level, several RPRs 100+. Only 1-14 at 1m but was close 2nd at Kempton in April. If settling, he has a chance, but temperament is a slight risk.
• Jimmy Speaking (Chris Dwyer, 4yo, OR 80, Draw 3) – In great nick this summer, several strong placed runs in Class 3s. Drawn well, likes to press the pace, and could be dangerous if allowed to dictate.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Ocean Odyssey (James Owen, 4yo, OR 69, Draw 14) – Lightly raced for new yard, bolted up here earlier this month (95 RPR) over C&D. Up 11lb, but still well treated if that effort repeats. Wide draw tough, but if he gets across, he’s a big danger.
• Callianassa (Brian Ellison, 4yo, OR 82, Draw 9) – Finally found winning form on Tapeta, and latest narrow Newcastle win (97 RPR) was a career-best. Consistency questionable, but thriving on AW lately.
• Mysteryofthesands (Tim Easterby, 4yo, OR 79, Draw 13) – Career-best RPR 96 latest at Haydock, a strong finisher who may appreciate a fast pace. Poor draw but could swoop late if they go hard.

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Runner Scores (suitability out of 10)

• Indalo – 9/10 (progressive, well suited by strong mile)
• Transparent – 8.5/10 (unexposed, strong C&D run last time, good draw)
• Cephalus – 8/10 (course specialist, right time of year, but needs pace collapse)
• Legal Reform – 8/10 (loves Southwell, form peak earlier this year, drawn well)
• Blue Prince – 7.5/10 (solid, but doesn’t always see 1m out strongly)
• Jimmy Speaking – 7/10 (in form, but pace pressure could compromise)
• Ocean Odyssey – 7.5/10 (danger if repeating latest, but wide draw a worry)
• Callianassa – 7/10 (in form on Tapeta, consistency not guaranteed)
• Mysteryofthesands – 6.5/10 (needs luck from wide stall, strong closer)
• On The River – 5/10 (soft-ground turf horse, AW less likely to suit)
• Gloriously Sassy – 6/10 (unexposed 3yo, but stamina for this trip unproven)
• Hyperchromatic – 6/10 (best on AW last time, inconsistent otherwise)
• Naepoint – 5/10 (needs to bounce back from poor Doncaster run, unproven AW)

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Private Tissue (fair odds estimate)

• Indalo – 4/1
• Transparent – 9/2
• Legal Reform – 6/1
• Cephalus – 13/2
• Ocean Odyssey – 7/1
• Blue Prince – 8/1
• Jimmy Speaking – 10/1
• Callianassa – 12/1
• Mysteryofthesands – 14/1
• Gloriously Sassy – 16/1
• Hyperchromatic – 20/1
• Naepoint – 25/1
• On The River – 25/1

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Summary & Smart Play

Plenty of pace here should set this up for something stalking or finishing late. Indalo looks progressive, well placed to pounce, and appeals most. Transparent is the 3yo with upside, already proven at Southwell. Cephalus is the dark horse, very dangerous back on AW at the right time of year. For value, Ocean Odyssey is the interesting outsider if he can overcome his draw.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Indalo – progressive and well suited to setup.
• Each-way saver: Transparent – lightly raced, strong C&D form, good draw.
• Value outsider: Ocean Odyssey – if handling rise and wide berth, could go close.