Pace & Draw Setup:
Beverley’s 5f track is sharp and can be draw-sensitive. With Regional, Adrestia, Redorange and a couple of pacey older hands in the line-up, this will be run at a strong gallop. Prominent racers usually hold an edge, but a collapse isn’t impossible given the forecasted pace pressure. Low-to-middle draws are historically favoured, but class often overrides bias in this Listed sprint.

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Strongest Contenders

Regional – Proven, Class Edge (8/10)

• Group 1 performer, reliable at 5f on fast ground.
• First-time blinkers and tongue-tie look an attempt to sharpen him up.
• Strong pace should suit his stalking style.
• Clear form pick, but hasn’t won since last autumn and is short in the betting.

Adrestia – Progressive, Main Danger (8/10)

• Big-field handicap star, unlucky not to win at Goodwood.
• Handles undulations, finishes strongly, still unexposed at 3.
• Weight-for-age pull + hot stable.
• Big chance if she transfers handicap form to Listed company.

Redorange – Solid Profile, Consistent (7/10)

• Always in the mix; consistent levels at Listed/strong handicap grade.
• Just behind Adrestia at Goodwood.
• Yard loves this race, and the first-time tongue-tie may eke out a bit more.
• May lack the turn of foot to win, but likely to be bang there.

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Main Dangers

Kerdos – Class Dropper, Bounce Risk (6/10)

• Last year’s winner, Group 2 scorer.
• Poor 2025 campaign, Nunthorpe effort uninspiring.
• Big drop in class is a plus, but he’s a shadow of peak form unless bouncing back.

First Instinct – Untapped Potential (6/10)

• Reliable 3yo filly with solid runs at both 5f and 6f.
• Slightly below best of these on bare form, but progressive yard.
• Needs career-best, but shouldn’t be dismissed if things fall right.

Star Of Lady M – Fresh Angle (5/10)

• Smart Listed winner in 2024, but absent nearly a year.
• If fit, she’s good enough – but market will guide confidence.

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Interesting Outsiders

Habooba – Handicap Improver (6/10)

• Yard switch has sparked significant progress.
• Multiple wins at York, has speed for 5f.
• Blinkers/tongue-tie combo interesting; could surprise if pace collapses.

Shagraan – Reliable but Limited (5/10)

• Hits the frame often; versatile trip.
• Rarely finds winning edge at this level.

Elegant Erin – Course Lover, Wrong Grade (3/10)

• Genuine Beverley 5f performer.
• Admirable handicapper but badly wrong at the weights.

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Runner Ratings /10

• Regional – 8/10 (class horse, clear form edge)
• Adrestia – 8/10 (progressive 3yo threat, WFA angle)
• Redorange – 7/10 (solid, Cox yard loves this race)
• Kerdos – 6/10 (past winner, but regressive profile)
• First Instinct – 6/10 (scopey, place claims)
• Habooba – 6/10 (unexposed, pace could suit)
• Star Of Lady M – 5/10 (capable, but 300+ days off)
• Shagraan – 5/10 (solid, but lacks punch)
• Elegant Erin – 3/10 (admirable, but not Listed class)

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Private Tissue Odds

• Regional – 2/1
• Adrestia – 5/2
• Redorange – 11/2
• Kerdos – 8/1
• First Instinct – 10/1
• Habooba – 12/1
• Star Of Lady M – 14/1
• Shagraan – 20/1
• Elegant Erin – 40/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks set up for Regional if the headgear sharpens him, but he isn’t bombproof given his winless run. Adrestia rates the most likely improver and could well leap into Group company soon, while Redorange brings consistency and the Cox yard factor. A strong gallop may also allow a late closer like Habooba to outrun odds.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet – Adrestia (progressive, strong Goodwood form, WFA allowance, hot yard)
• Each-Way Saver – Redorange (solid Listed-level consistency, trainer’s excellent record here)
• Lay to Place – Kerdos (big name, but profile regressive and likely overbet on past glories)