Pace & Shape:
With six left in after the withdrawal of Lookingforarainbow, this could turn tactical. No clear tearaway; likely an even to slightly steady gallop. Aidan O’Brien has two in (Sugar Island, Moments Of Joy) so a team pace angle is possible, but neither has made running so far. Best suited may be those with a bit of tactical speed and the ability to quicken off a steady pace. Draw not a major factor here.

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Key Contenders

7 Sugar Island (A P O’Brien / Ryan Moore) – Progressive / Promising
Debut winner here over 7f, finding plenty in the finish. Runner-up has let the form down, but the way she knuckled down suggests 1m will bring improvement. Ryan Moore’s choice over Moments Of Joy is a strong pointer, and Aidan O’Brien’s fillies often progress markedly from debut. The stable is hot. Needs to improve on bare RPRs, but profile screams upside.

5 Queen Of Hawaii (J P O’Brien) – Progressive / Proven
Took a big step forward when winning her Leopardstown maiden over this trip with plenty in hand. Clock/sectionals suggested she had more to give. Bred to go on improving and stable rate her highly. She already has the right blend of form substance + untapped potential. Looks the solid option if the favourite underperforms.

4 Moments Of Joy (A P O’Brien) – Proven
Debut winner, then a good third in the Chesham at Royal Ascot (Listed) against colts – the best single piece of form on show. Only niggle is that Ryan Moore has sided with Sugar Island. Still, she’s achieved more than most here and is straightforward.

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Others

1 Cape Sounion (D A O’Brien) – Exposed / Consistent
Second four times, often fancied, and keeps running her race around RPR 94–98. Deserves a win, but lacks the improvement curve others have. More likely a solid place player than a Group winner.

6 Ridersinthesky (J Harrington) – Promising
Form ties in closely with Sugar Island (just behind her on debut) and Cape Sounion (close third to her at Cork). Stays well and the extra furlong should help, but she may just lack the sharpness to trouble the principals if the pace lifts. Each-way squeak if the race turns messy.

2 La Fogata (G Lyons) – Unexposed
Promising debut at Leopardstown (7f) in a slowly-run race. Dam a stayer, so 1m+ will suit. Yard in hot form and she’s bred to progress, but bare debut form a bit shy of what’s needed. One for later rather than today.

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Runner Scores (Suitability out of 10)

• Sugar Island – 8.5/10 (trainer/jockey intent + scope, but must prove Group-class level)
• Queen Of Hawaii – 8/10 (proven over 1m, strong debut winner, solid base to progress)
• Moments Of Joy – 7.5/10 (best form achieved, but Moore’s choice is a slight negative)
• Cape Sounion – 6.5/10 (consistent, but exposed and vulnerable to improvers)
• Ridersinthesky – 6/10 (honest, will stay, place chance if pace scenario helps)
• La Fogata – 5.5/10 (can improve, but needs a big leap to get involved)

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Private Tissue (My Odds)

• Sugar Island – 2/1
• Queen Of Hawaii – 3/1
• Moments Of Joy – 4/1
• Cape Sounion – 8/1
• Ridersinthesky – 10/1
• La Fogata – 14/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a clash of unexposed improvers from the big yards. Sugar Island has the pedigree, the right jockey booking, and the strongest potential upside if she takes the normal Ballydoyle leap forward. Queen Of Hawaii is already proven at 1m and could be the safer option if you want form substance. Moments Of Joy cannot be dismissed with her Ascot form, though Moore’s desertion hints she may not be the yard’s first string today.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Sugar Island – profiles as the improver with Group 1 potential.
• Each-way saver: Queen Of Hawaii – solid, progressive, and has already done it at this trip.