Race Setup & Pace/Draw

• Field Size: 6 (after Tashkhan & Too Soon NRs).
• Pace Forecast: Very Weak – no confirmed front-runner; risk of tactical muddle.
• Chester Bias: Inside draw/handy sit often crucial here. Hold-up types may find it tough if race turns into a crawl.

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Key Contenders

1. Alsakib (Andrew Balding) – 5yo, OR 116

• Course winner; G3 (York, 1m6f) on CV.
• Handles cut; close fourth in a slowly-run Yorkshire Cup (shows he can quicken off no pace).
• Concerns: Patchy profile, 2 below-par runs in last 4.
• Proven class and Chester form angle make him the one to beat if tuned up.

4. Tabletalk (Tom Clover) – 4yo, OR 119

• Melrose Hcap winner; strong Listed/Group efforts this year.
• First-time headgear (p1) is a question mark.
• Best form on good or quicker – softer conditions may blunt him (below par on good-to-soft/soft).
• Major player if ground doesn’t turn slower.

6. Allonsy (Ralph Beckett) – 4yo, OR 109

• Strong Listed 2nd (1m6f, soft) last year; improved again winning Listed (1m4f, good).
• Solid run in G2 at Goodwood latest; handles both soft & good.
• Holds a line of form with Tabletalk (beat him on soft last autumn).
• Profile suggests she’s still improving – big player if pace isn’t too messy.

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Others

3. Prydwen (George Scott) – 7yo, OR 119

• Reliable stayer at best; health scare in Saudi (heart issue).
• Two below-par runs since; hard to trust current wellbeing.

7. Orchard Keeper (Roger Varian) – 4yo, OR 102

• Improving handicapper; not yet Listed standard on bare form.
• Needs to progress again; tactical pace won’t help.

2. Minella Rescue (G Hanmer) – 7yo hurdler

• Useful NH performer, but big ask on Flat debut at Listed level.
• Outsider.

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Suitability Scores (out of 10)

• Alsakib – 8/10 (proven class, Chester form, handles ground; patchy form a worry).
• Tabletalk – 7/10 (major form claims; softer ground/headgear risk).
• Allonsy – 7.5/10 (progressive mare, versatile ground-wise, handles trip well).
• Prydwen – 5/10 (capable but health/form doubts).
• Orchard Keeper – 5/10 (improving but this is a big rise in class).
• Minella Rescue – 3/10 (wrong code debut, looks outclassed).

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Private Tissue (Guide Odds)

• Alsakib 9/4
• Allonsy 3/1
• Tabletalk 7/2
• Prydwen 8/1
• Orchard Keeper 10/1
• Minella Rescue 25/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This Listed Chester Stakes looks likely to become tactical with no obvious pace angle. That scenario favours those with a turn of foot – Alsakib has already shown he can quicken in slowly-run staying contests and has proven class plus Chester-winning form. Allonsy appeals as the progressive alternative who handles both ground types and stays strongly. Tabletalk is the other key form player but softer ground and first-time headgear bring risks.

Smart Play:

• Win bet – Alsakib (course form + tactical fit).
• Saver – Allonsy (progressive mare with Listed-winning profile, handles all ground).