Pace / Draw Setup:
Expected very strong pace – several want to be handy (Mission Central, Fresh Fade, Ipanema Queen). Curragh 6f on good ground is a stiff test, meaning hold-up or stalkers could come through late if they settle. No major draw bias here, but too much use early could be costly.

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Leading Contenders

• Mission Central (A P O’Brien / Moore) – Proven / Progressive
  Big C&D maiden win (107+ TS) and looked smart after gelding. Travels strongly, can sit near the pace, and Moore retains the ride. Up in grade but pedigree, trainer form, and sectionals suggest he’s the one to beat.
• Mushaffar (J P O’Brien / D B McMonagle) – Promising
  C&D debut winner, picked up strongly from off the pace. Style suited to today’s likely strong gallop. Rider preference is significant. Needs to improve but could do so sharply.
• Ipanema Queen (A Murray / McDonogh) – Proven
  Listed winner here over 5f two weeks ago. Versatile and already C&D proven. Handles cut and stiff finish. Well-experienced filly who may not have the raw upside of the top colts but has a strong profile for place money.
• Arugam Bay (E & P Harty / Hayes) – Progressive
  Beat good rivals in Listed Tipperary (First Approach, Fresh Fade) but didn’t quite get home at Ascot in a tough Group 3. Today’s stiff 6f is a stamina question again, though ability is clear.
• Magny Cours (D McLoughlin / Crosse) – Interesting Outsider
  Much improved when held up in Naas Listed race over 5f; finished strongly. Back to 6f on a stiff track could really suit. If pace collapses, she’s a lively late player at double-figure odds.

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Other Notes

• Chicago Call – Genuine Listed/Group 2 performer, but may be slightly below best of these; place squeak if improving.
• First Approach – Cheekpieces helped earlier but lacks 6f conviction.
• Fresh Fade – Recent Naas win, but class leap is steep.
• Learntodiscover – Tried cheekpieces; Railway Stakes effort suggests limitations.
• Red Earth – Debut winner, but raw and up in grade.
• The Publicans Son – Unraced; connections rate him but debuting here is tough.

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Runner Scores (Suitability /10)

• Mission Central – 9/10 (big maiden win, strong yard, pace versatile)
• Mushaffar – 8.5/10 (improving, ideal setup)
• Ipanema Queen – 8/10 (battle-hardened, Listed winner, solid filly)
• Arugam Bay – 7.5/10 (talented, stamina to prove)
• Magny Cours – 7.5/10 (closer, could be value if collapse)
• Chicago Call – 7/10 (solid, but just below top colts)
• Red Earth – 6.5/10 (untapped, but raw)
• Fresh Fade – 6/10 (likeable, class question)
• Learntodiscover – 5.5/10 (cheekpieces need to work miracles)
• First Approach – 5/10 (trip doubts)
• The Publicans Son – ?/10 (unknown; hard to back first up here)

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Private Tissue (my odds)

• Mission Central 9/4
• Mushaffar 7/2
• Ipanema Queen 11/2
• Arugam Bay 13/2
• Magny Cours 8/1
• Chicago Call 10/1
• Red Earth 14/1
• Fresh Fade 16/1
• Learntodiscover 20/1
• First Approach 25/1
• The Publicans Son 33/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This sets up as a test of stamina at 6f with a fierce pace. The standout is Mission Central, who looked a Group horse in the making when bolting up over C&D and has the tactical speed to cope. Mushaffar is the main danger with a contrasting hold-up style that could be suited if the race collapses. The fillies bring experience – Ipanema Queen is rock solid, while Magny Cours is an interesting each-way value with a strong-finishing profile.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Mission Central
• Each-Way Saver: Magny Cours (if 8+ runners, double-figure odds)
• Watch for late market support on Mushaffar – could be significant.