Pace & Draw Angles: Pace forecast looks weak/muddling. Brighton’s 6f favours those handy into the downhill turn; prominent racers can pinch it if nothing takes them on. Likely pace comes from Pop Dancer, Graduated, and Thanks Dad; Under Curfew can sit close if he breaks. Several closers (Time Patrol, Tea Sea, My Boy Jack, B Associates) risk being marooned if they’re too patient. Draw has been marked neutral for this, so I’m weighting race position over stall.


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Strongest Contenders

Pop Dancer (Proven) — Two Brighton wins this spring; usually leads; last run a write-off after stumbling + poor draw. Trip ideal and pace set-up favours him.

Graduated (Progressive) — Consistent 6f/7f filly who races prominently; shaped like she wanted a shade further last twice, but a steady 6f215y could be perfect.

Twirler (Proven) — July wins at 6f (Windsor/Epsom); versatile tactically; can sit close and keep rolling.

Tea Sea (Proven) — In form and won here over 7f 12 days ago; often slow away/held up; needs the leaders to overdo it (less likely if pace is muddling).

Pietro (Promising) — Big York second over 7f and a July Course win (7f). Class angle, but today’s trip might be a touch sharp if they crawl.


Main Dangers

Under Curfew — Strong late work over 6f here last time after conceding first run; well treated at the weights, but break/starts matter.

My Boy Jack — Relentless placer; needs the splits and a pace lift.

Time Patrol — Multiple Brighton wins (6f/7f) but a hold-up style is a risk in a weakly-run race.


Interesting Outsiders

Roman Spring — C&D winner in July; capable if breaking cleanly; a handy sit from low draw would make him dangerous at a price.

Thanks Dad — Prominent style fits; trainer cold tempers confidence but tactical set-up suits.



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Runner Scores & Suitability ( /10 )

Pop Dancer – 8/10: Back to ideal C&D, likely leader; forgive latest (stumble/draw).

Graduated – 7.5/10: Solid, on the up; prominent; slight stamina edge helps late.

Twirler – 7.5/10: In form at 6f; handles undulations; pace/track OK.

Tea Sea – 7/10: Hot form but hold-up style could be blunted; still respected.

Pietro – 7/10: Best form at 7f; classy but may need stronger pace.

Under Curfew – 7/10: Course savvy; late kick good last time; start is key.

My Boy Jack – 6.5/10: Rock-solid placer; win angle less clear in muddling run.

Time Patrol – 6.5/10: Loves Brighton; hold-up risk into weak pace.

Thanks Dad – 6/10: Tactics right; yard cold; may hang on for a slice.

B Associates – 5.5/10: Better at 7f and off the pace; might be staying on late only.

My Boy Harry – 5.5/10: Wants 6f+ which he gets; needs a step forward at this class.

Roman Spring – 6.5/10: C&D winner; if away on terms, value lurker.

Port Hedland – 4.5/10: Out of form; others stronger.


Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


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Each-Way Angles (13 runners, place terms likely 1–2–3)

Roman Spring — Unfashionable profile but has C&D and could track the pace; double-figure odds appeal EW.

Under Curfew — Course regular, shaped well last time; if breaking, has the run style to nick a place at a price.

Twirler — If 8/1+ with 4 places available (check terms), very fair EW with current form.



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Private Tissue (my odds)

Pop Dancer 11/2 (15%)

Twirler 13/2 (13.5%)

Graduated 7/1 (12.5%)

Tea Sea 15/2 (11.5%)

Pietro 8/1 (11%)

Under Curfew 11/1 (8%)

My Boy Jack 12/1 (7.5%)

Time Patrol 14/1 (6.5%)

Roman Spring 16/1 (5.5%)

Thanks Dad 20/1 (4%)

My Boy Harry 22/1 (3.5%)

B Associates 25/1 (2.5%)

Port Hedland 40/1 (2%)
(≈ 103% book before rounding)



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Summary

Expect a steady to even tempo with Pop Dancer/Graduated/Thanks Dad controlling it. That puts the squeeze on closers like Time Patrol, Tea Sea, and My Boy Jack unless they go earlier than usual. Pop Dancer has the best combination of course craft, ideal trip, and likely race shape; last time is easy to forgive. Twirler and Graduated are the main threats from handy positions. Value lurks with Roman Spring and Under Curfew for place money.

Smart Play

Top Win Bet: Pop Dancer — back to optimum set-up; likely pace advantage; Brighton specialist.

Each-Way Saver: Roman Spring — C&D tick, can sit handy; big price makes the place play attractive.