Pace/Draw set-up: Several habitual pressers (One For Harvey, Little Miss Magic, Vaunted, Silky Robin, Recon Mission) should make this an even-to-strongly run 5½f. Bath’s uphill last furlong rewards stamina at the trip. Low-to-middle draws are often fine here; rail in stall 1 can be a help if you break, while wide closers need a clean slingshot. A solid gallop brings closers into it (Sisters In The Sky, All Too Beautiful, Reporter).
Strongest Contenders / Dangers / Outsiders
Proven / Course-angles
- Vaunted (draw 3, OR 57) – Proven: C&D winner, in form, third here 16 Aug (only ¾l down) and running to solid 67–74 territory. Handy draw and sits just off the pace; shapes like this stiff 5½f is her optimum.
- Sisters In The Sky (10, 51) – Proven: Three Bath wins, best late when pace collapses. Needs gaps/tempo but race sets up. Recent Bath figures (71/65/64) are competitive at this level.
Progressive / Promising
- All Too Beautiful (1, 55) – Promising: 3yo filly coming to hand: close Wind 2nd then hd 1st over 6f (RPR 72). Draw 1, light weight, strong finisher—stiff 5½f ideal. Big “third run into form” vibes.
- Sundiata Keita (9, 59) – Promising: Two Bath seconds (hd 25 Jun; RPR 69) and a neck 3rd at Ffos Las over 5f. New yard has him forward; profiles like a winner-in-waiting at this track/trip.
Main dangers
- Little Miss Magic (8, 57) – Progressive: Only 1-18 but bang in form: hd 2nd over C&D (RPR 69) and earlier Salisbury 3rd. 7lb claim useful. Travels sweetly; just needs to see it out.
- Reporter (11, 61) – Promising: Windsor 5f win two back; RPR 69 at Windsor again. Wide draw not ideal but pace/finish blend suits; if he settles, he’ll finish hard.
Interesting outsiders
- Silky Robin (5, 61) – Temperamental but capable: Blinkers sparked best turf RPR 71 earlier. Tom Marquand booked; gate antics a worry but a live pace-play if he jumps.
- One For Harvey (2, 61) – Pace angle: 3yo speed, Nottingham win (RPR 70). Best on fast ground; could hang on for a place if controlling the inner early.
On the downgrade/risks
- Recon Mission (4, 62): Rock-solid veteran but turf RPRs dipping; best AW this year.
- Macs Dilemma (7, 58): Regressive at 7; form tailing off.
- Skellig Isle (6, 62): 3yo with an old AW spike (78) but recent turf efforts weak; drop to 5½f didn’t help LTO.
Trainer/Jockey notes: Carroll’s yard rtf 62% (Recon Mission) but horse looks below peak on turf. Marquand up on Silky Robin is a plus; Rossa Ryan a good fit for hold-up Sisters In The Sky.
Runner Scores /10 (suitability snapshot)
- All Too Beautiful – 7.5/10 (Draw 1, progressive 3yo; stiff 5½f looks ideal; rail run if breaking.)
- Sundiata Keita – 7.5/10 (Two Bath near-misses; strong 5f data; pace to aim at; just needs a clean run.)
- Little Miss Magic – 7/10 (C&D hd 2nd latest; claimer helpful; middle draw fine; slight finishing doubt.)
- Vaunted – 7/10 (C&D player, consistent; handy sit from 3; one to keep onside.)
- Sisters In The Sky – 7/10 (Course specialist; late kick + expected pace = chance; draw 10 = luck needed.)
- Reporter – 6.5/10 (Recent 69s; wide 11 a nuisance, but tempo helps; place squeak.)
- Silky Robin – 6/10 (Capable on a going day; temperament/gates are real risks; Marquand boosts.)
- One For Harvey – 6/10 (Speed from low draw; prefers rattling fast; could stick on for a slice.)
- Recon Mission – 5/10 (Grand servant; turf figures ebbing; better AW.)
- Skellig Isle – 4.5/10 (Profile messy; needs a revival.)
- Macs Dilemma – 3.5/10 (Regressive signs; others more compelling.)
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (11 runners)
- Vaunted – consistent C&D mare, draw 3, strong place profile.
- Sisters In The Sky – needs luck but race shape perfect; happy EW if price solid (and you can get 3 places).
- All Too Beautiful – unexposed 3yo with rail draw; EW if she drifts from the front 3 in market.
Private Tissue (my fair odds)
- All Too Beautiful 7/2
- Sundiata Keita 4/1
- Vaunted 5/1
- Little Miss Magic 11/2
- Sisters In The Sky 8/1
- Reporter 9/1
- Silky Robin 12/1
- One For Harvey 14/1
- Recon Mission 16/1
- Skellig Isle 18/1
- Macs Dilemma 25/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Strong pace likely, turning this into a stamina-at-6f test up the Bath climb. That plays to unexposed finishers and reliable C&D operators. The draw 1 filly All Too Beautiful brings the freshest piece of form (RPR 72), looks ideally placed to stalk and pounce, and gets WFA. Sundiata Keita is the other with rock-solid Bath evidence and should be delivered late. Vaunted is the C&D nap for place players.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: All Too Beautiful — progressive 3yo, rail draw, recent 72 suggests she’s ready to cash at this level.
- Each-way saver: Vaunted — C&D mare drawn low, consistent recent figures and race shape to suit.
Main dangers: Sundiata Keita (obvious Bath winner-in-waiting) and Little Miss Magic (in form; just needs to see it out). Hold-up risk: Sisters In The Sky (needs gaps but could thunder home if they overcook it).
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